The New York Yankees' Aaron Judge has hit 60 home runs so far this season and stands 13 home runs short of the Major League Record 73 home runs hit by Barry Bonds in 2001 with nine games left to play. But sports media has hyped up Judge's pursuit of the American League record, which still stands at the 61* home runs hit by Roger Maris in 1961. The hype suggests that this is a record worth celebrating with ESPN even cutting into college football games over the weekend to show his at bats live and complaints that Friday night's game was exclusively on Apple TV+ rather than traditional media, even though it was absolutely free for the entire world to watch.

The suggestion seems to be that the focus on Maris' 61* is intended to be a slight against Mark McGwire's 70 and Bonds' 73, both numbers that are tainted by steroid use. The American League record of 61* is, as a result, considered more "pure." A suggestion that I buy into given how baseball writers have treated even people with the suspicion of steroid usage in recent Hall of Fame voting. 

However, it's fair to remember that 61* wasn't completely pure either and had its own fair share of controversy. The American League played its first 162 game season in 1961, up from 154. Maris only hit 58 home runs in his first 154 games, leading many to argue that Babe Ruth was still the real single season home run leader. Despite being the defending MVP, Maris was not an overly popular player at the time. If not for hitting 61 home runs, I doubt many fans today would be aware of who he is. It likely played a role in MLB deciding to make it its own record, rather than replace Ruth's. Maris would hit three home runs during those extra eight games for a final tally of 61*.

I'm all about celebrating greatness when greatness happens, but is the "American League" home run record even worth celebrating in today's game? Would we even be paying attention if Judge played for the Kansas City Royals instead of the New York Yankees? After all, 61 home runs in a season has been exceeded six times since Maris' record setting season.

There were already a group of fans who would dismiss the idea of individual league records having meaning, but to an extent they were when the leagues competed under two different sets of rules. The American League used the designated hitter. The National League did not. Under the new collective bargaining agreement put into place this season, the designated hitter has been expanded to both leagues and unified the rule set. Perhaps if you want to pack up the NL records in a box and forget about them, this would be the correct argument. The National League was played under a different set of rules. The American League rules are the ones that still stand.

It's actually an interesting train of thought when you start to consider what has quietly lost its meaning now that both leagues are playing with the same set of rules. 

First and foremost is that it doesn't really matter when media members talk about how such-and-such a player is leading one league in some statistic when there's another player in the other league with more. Both leagues have the same rules, so it doesn't make sense to delineate National League or American League players.

And if it doesn't make sense to delineate players as being National League or American League players, it definitely doesn't matter for teams any longer and the entire league structure is no longer really necessary except to divide the sides of the playoff bracket because there is no distinction between the leagues. With expanded playoffs, the current three division structure doesn't work very well, which introduces an opportunity to rethink and realign the divisions and leagues.

But as it comes to Judge, perhaps instead on fixating on the American League home run record, we instead focus on the fact that he's having the best single season in Yankees history since Mickey Mantle in 1957? An impressive feat considering how many great players have donned the Yankees' pinstripes in the last 65 years.

How about we focus on that it's the 10th best single season by a Yankees position player in history. And the 24th best season by a Major League position player ever. 

How about we focus on that this will be his second season in the top-40 seasons all time by a Yankees hitter. The only guys who have done it more often? Ruth (13 times), Lou Gehrig (10 times), Mantle (7 times), and Joe DiMaggio (3 times). Great company.

How about we focus on how he turned down a 7-year, $213.5 million contract offer before the season to bet on himself and responded with one of the greatest single seasons of all time?

When Ichiro Suzuki retired in 2019, there were many who wanted to act as if he was baseball's all-time hits leader. People would add his 1,278 hits from his career in Nippon Professional Baseball with his 3,089 hits in Major League Baseball and he had 4,367 hits. More than Pete Rose's 4,256 hits. But the problem with that is that you can celebrate one player's greatness without having to subtract from another's. It's purely an attempt to erase Rose, who had a gambling problem and ended up permanently banned from baseball, from the history of the sport. We didn't ignore Bonds becoming the all-time home run leader because Sadaharu Oh hit 868 in his NPB career. Most baseball fans probably haven't even heard of him.

You can't rewrite the history of the game.

Celebrate greatness when it comes for what it is, not for what it isn't.

After four and a half below average seasons with the Angels, Pujols found himself a free agent, falling short of closing out the ten-year deal he signed following the 2011 season to leave St. Louis. There was a little flirtation with a reunion with the Cardinals at the time, but ultimately, he would sign with the Dodgers who had a larger role available. In 85 games with the Dodgers, he would hit 12 home runs with a 100 wRC+ and proved himself to still be one of the league’s best offensive threats against left-handed pitchers.

That rebound with the Dodgers and the implementation of the DH in the National League, set up a situation where the Cardinals needed a guy who could hit left-handed pitching and who better to bring in than—with all due respect to Stan Musial—one of the best, if not the best, hitters in franchise history for a final year to bring a close to one of the most legendary careers in baseball history.

As I put it in March, John Mozeliak has gotten the band back together. Pujols, Yadier Molina, and Adam Wainwright. Both Pujols and Molina have said that this is their final season. Wainwright is waiting to decide.

Even with the addition of Pujols, a run at 700 didn’t seem likely. He was going to be caught in the middle of a lot of young, exciting players. He was really only impactful against left-handed pitchers. And he wasn’t going to play the field a lot behind Paul Goldschmidt. I figured if Pujols was playing enough to hit 21 home runs this season, I’d be asking how far out of the playoffs the Cardinals were because something must have gone wrong. But here we are.

With 89 wins through 152 games, the Cardinals just need three more wins to have their winningest season since winning 100 games in 2015. They need four more wins to secure the NL Central regardless of what the Brewers do for the just the second time since 2015 as well.

Barring a slump in the last ten games of the season, Pujols’ 12 best seasons in Major League Baseball are going to come in a Cardinals’ uniform. That seemed almost impossible when he left after 11 seasons. His previous worst season in a Cardinals’ uniform was a 147 wRC+ in the 2011 season. His best season in another uniform was a 133 wRC+ in the 2012 season, his first with the Angels. So far this season he has a 143 wRC+.

With that home run last night, a three-run shot off Dodgers’ right-handed reliever Phil Bickford in the fourth inning, Pujols became the fourth member of the 700 HR club, joining Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, and Babe Ruth. He and Aaron are the only two to also have 3,000 hits. He and Ruth are the only two to have pitched in the Majors. And he and Bonds are the only two living members.

There’s a lot of different ways to cut it to make it feel more impressive, but only four guys in almost 150 years have done it. It might be the most exclusive stat “club” in baseball. And he might be the last one to do it for quite some time.

Second-place among active players is Miguel Cabrera, who is 194 home runs behind with 506 and 39 years old. He does plan to play next season and has talked like it will be his final year. If next season is his final season, he would need to nearly triple the single-season home run record of 73 to get to 700. Not gonna lie, that would be fun to watch.

Pujols’ former teammate Mike Trout is the youngest player in the top-10 for active career home run leaders at 31 years old with 346 home runs. If Trout retires at the end of his current contract at 38 years old, he will need to average 45 home runs a season for the next 8 years. He’s done that just once.

Bryce Harper is the youngest player in the top-20 at 29 years old with 284 home runs. If he retires at the end of his current contract at 39 years old, he needs to average 46 home runs a season for the next 9 years. That’s four more than his single-season career high of 42.

The next player younger than Harper is Kyle Schwarber at 30th. And he’s 140 days younger than Harper and 91 home runs behind. Meaning if he played another 10 more years, he’d need to average 51 home runs a season. Math is not on their side.

You might say a player like Juan Soto, who is still just 23 years old, has a chance. And it’s true that he might, but he illustrates why it’s so hard to project off a guy so early in his career. If Soto were to play to 40 years old, he just needs to average 34 home runs a year to get to 700. That seems attainable except when you consider that 1) 34 home runs is his career high at this point, 2) 17 years is a really long time to stay healthy in baseball, and 3) he’s playing the next couple years in the pitching paradise that is San Diego.

I’d be willing to bet that the next 700 home run player—if there is a next 700 home run player—has not yet made their MLB debut.

For the first time last night, after watching the replay of his 700th home run for what felt like probably the 700th time, I allowed myself to think about the playoffs and that it really is the end of the line for guys like Pujols and Molina and maybe Wainwright. As someone who really started following the Cardinals closely in the early-2000s, this is the end of a chapter for me. It got me thinking about how falling short of winning the World Series will burn extra because of that.

I want to party like it’s 2011.

Monday morning I was sitting at the kitchen table and feeling particularly snarky and yet somehow resisted being harsh at the Cardinals’ front office and tweeting something about how rebuilders sell, contenders acquire, and pretenders stand pat. Because at that point the Cardinals hadn’t done anything besides shift around some assets and I know better than to get my hopes up about the organization making big deals.

And that will be the target complaint: that the Cardinals did not pay the price to acquire Juan Soto, missing out on a generational talent for a package of talent that the organization could have given up without setting back their farm system too far. But it was always going to be a long shot for the Cardinals to win any kind of fight for Soto. The way the front office operates makes those kinds of bidding wars very difficult to win.

Going into the deadline, I did not expect the Cardinals to make the big move, but I did want them to make enough additions that they were clearly better after it than they were before it. I didn’t want them to just patch holes, but to fill them and paint over them. Did they accomplish that? Let’s look at the deals.

SS Edmundo Sosa to PHI for LHP JoJo Romero

On Saturday the Cardinals traded Edmundo Sosa to the Phillies for LHP JoJo Romero. For the Cardinals, this trade was mainly about reallocating some assets. Sosa had a solid year with the bat in 2021 and looked like a solid backup option should Paul DeJong fail to re-establish himself as the team’s starting shortstop. Well, DeJong failed and then so did Sosa, hitting just .189/.244/.270 in 53 games.

The organization will be calling up Paul DeJong this weekend. DeJong has hit .267/.333/.644 with 15 home runs since the beginning of June in Memphis. The organization doesn’t need four guys who can play shortstop on the roster, so someone had to go. Sosa was the worst performer and out of options, so it was either cut him or deal him. The Phillies were willing to take him.

Coming to the Cardinals is LHP JoJo Romero. Romero has a 7.89 ERA in 21 2/3 big league innings, but there are a number of complicating factors that have contributed to that, including small sample size in appearances over three seasons.

Romero is coming off Tommy John surgery in May 2021 that ended his 2021 season and he returned to the mound less than two months ago. He posted a 1.54 ERA in 11 2/3 innings during his rehab stint before making his big league return on July 16th for the Phillies with a perfect 1-2-3 inning against the Marlins. A week later against the Cubs he’d get pounded for three runs.

As I said earlier, this move was about reallocating resources. They turned a shortstop into a left-handed pitcher with a few years of team control left. Looking ahead to next year’s bullpen, there will be opportunities for a left-handed pitcher.

I saw some people suggesting that this means that left-handed prospects Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson were going to be dealt at the deadline, btu I don’t see that. I think it means they’re more likely to stay. The organization wants Liberatore and Thompson ready to rotation roles, which means they need bullpen options to keep them there. That’s Romero.

RHP Johan Oviedo and 1B Malcolm Nunez to PIT for LHP Jose Quintana and RHP Chris Stratton

Keeping it all in Pennsylvania, the Cardinals notched their second deal of the deadline stretch on Monday evening, bringing in a much needed starting pitcher in Jose Quintana and relief arm in Chris Stratton.

While fans wanted Frankie Montas, Mozeliak & Co. went for Jose Quintana who is on a 1 year, $2 million deal this season. Quintana has a 3.50 ERA in 20 starts for the Pirates and has actually been pretty comparable to Montas this season. Montas has a 3.36 FIP in 104 2/3 innings with a 2.0 WAR. Quintana has a 3.23 FIP in 103 innings and a 2.1 WAR. For comparison, Miles Mikolas has a 3.69 FIP and Adam Wainwright has a 3.81 FIP. So he fits in.

They will also add Chris Stratton to the bullpen. While Stratton’s 5.09 ERA looks bad, outside of an appearance where he got tagged for five runs without recording an out, he has been on par with his previous three seasons with the Pirates. Since he joined the Pirates in 2019, Stratton has a 3.98 ERA in 196 2/3 innings of work. He also has one more year of arbitration eligibility before free agency.

Going to Pittsburgh is Johan Oviedo, who had made 19 starts for the Cardinals before working out of the bullpen this season. Since making that move, Oviedo has a 2.66 ERA over 20 1/3 innings, but has worked in a mop up role for the Cardinals. I’ve always felt Oviedo’s stuff worked much better in relief and was surprised the last couple years when the organization would use him as a starter, but that was likely to protect some other arms. The manager seems reluctant to put faith in him for higher leverage situations, despite his numbers, so instead he’ll get an opportunity in Pittsburgh to have more consistent innings.

They will also receive the Cardinals’ #10 prospect in Malcolm Nunez. The 21-year-old Cuban prospect is hitting .255/.360/.463 with 17 home runs in 85 games for Springfield this season, his first full season at Double-A. He’s been talked about as a third baseman but has gotten 90% of his defensive starts this season at first base. The book on him is that he’s a bat without a position, but Birds on the Black’s resident prospect expert Kyle Reis describes him as a pure hitter who just has an “innate ability to hit.” If the power can continue to come it, this is a player that could hurt to have traded away, but it’s still the right move for the 2022 Cardinals.

OF Harrison Bader to NYY for LHP Jordan Montgomery

Chalk this one up as one of the biggest surprises in baseball at the deadline. Neither player was expected to be traded and Bader is on the injured list.

Montgomery, a left-handed former fourth round pick, has been a quality Major League starting pitcher in each of his last six seasons in the big leagues. Last season he made 30 starts for the Yankees with a 3.83 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. This season he’s having a career year with a 3.69 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in a league leading 21 starts. While his strikeout rate is down, so is his walk rate as he’s become more of a ground ball pitcher, which will generally profile well with the Cardinals’ infield defense.

The Cardinals seemed to have seen an opportunity to pick up a starter from the Yankees following their trade for Montas.

When Bader signed a 2 year, $10.4 million deal to avoid arbitration earlier this year, it figured he would be the guy in the center field for the Cardinals. However, he has struggled with plantar fasciitis this year and his performance on both sides of the ball has fallen off.

There is an additional clause related to Bader’s injury that the trade will include a player to be named later if Bader does not return to the field this season. But I think he will be happy to go home to play.

So how did the Cardinals do? It wasn’t flashy, but there does appear to be enough substance there to have plugged the holes.

The Cardinals’ biggest need was in the rotation with injuries to Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz, the latter not expected to return to the mound this year at this point. Both Quintana and Montgomery should be able to give you comparable performance to Matz and hand the ball to the bullpen with an opportunity to win on a regular basis. And the addition of Stratton out there should give Oliver Marmol another arm to lean on.

The Brewers added a ton of bullpen arms but traded away their closer to the Padres in exchange for theirs. It was an interesting deadline for them, but bullpen options are not a bad thing, especially for a team leading their division. Getting some new arms in can be a big boost.

I do think the Cardinals will end up ruing not going had after Soto. I’m not saying anything everyone doesn’t already know. The type of player that Soto is doesn’t come available very often and you need to capitalize when they do, especially when you haven’t been able to develop an offensive star in-house in 21 years. Now, not only do you miss out on Soto, but you stand a good chance of him being between you and the World Series for at least the next three years.

I get it. And I don’t need John Mozeliak to tell me why the Cardinals didn’t get Juan Soto or any of the other top players who were available at the deadline, I know the answer already. It’s the same. This is just who the organization is.

Overall, the front office did what they needed to do. They needed pitching help and they got it. Putting Quintana and Montgomery in the rotation should free up Dakota Hudson and Andre Pallante to work out of the bullpen with Stratton and that makes everything deeper back there. Which sucks for Pallante because he just pitched the game off a lifetime.

But that should get them to the playoffs. However, winning them is still another story.

Tuesday, August 2nd. That is the Major League Baseball trade deadline this season and it is fast approaching for teams looking to adjust their rosters heading into the final two month stretch of the season before the playoffs.

In my opinion, teams should always be looking to do something at the trade deadline. If not making moves to improve the roster for the current season, unloading players who aren’t in your plans for the future to improve future rosters. The last several seasons, the Cardinals have been the latter team.

I think that this is always something that fans get wrong when they approach the trade deadline, and that’s likely because of the optimism of fans, but it’s not always about improving your team to making a run. Sometimes teams aren’t worth betting on and are too far away that a handful of deals at the trade deadline aren’t going to make the difference between you and the teams you’re chasing.

I like to make the poker example. Are the cards you’re holding worth betting on? Is it worth pushing some chips to the middle of the table to play this hand? Or should you hold those chips to play another? That’s the question front offices of teams who are on the edge are asking themselves.

Through 99 games this season, the Cardinals have 52 wins and are three games out of an NL Central lead they held just over one month ago. You have to go back to the 2015 season to find a Cardinals team that had more wins and was better positioned in the standings through 99 games than the 2022 Cardinals. That July the Cardinals added Brandon Moss, Steve Cishek, and Jonathan Broxton.

Moss put together a strong finish to the season with a 109 wRC+ as the Cardinals hunted for someone who could be an above average first baseman. Meanwhile Broxton had a 2.66 ERA over 23 2/3 innings and Cishek had a 2.31 ERA over 23 1/3 innings. And the guy they aquired at the 2014 deadline, John Lackey, was the team’s top pitcher with a 2.77 ERA in 33 starts.

Those trades represent the Cardinals’ typical approach for trade deadline. They are more tactical than flashy. But they are a perfect illustration of why you should always be doing something to address your team’s needs, present or future, to some extent at the deadline.

The Cardinals had 53 wins and were a game and a half up in the NL Central the last time the Cardinals acquired a true star player in Matt Holliday during the 2009 season.

The trouble for the Cardinals at the deadline has always been teams asking for players that the organization is not willing to part with or that they don’t value as much. Such as a couple years ago where the Mets wanted Harrison Bader or Tyler O’Neill for two months of Zack Wheeler. Of course, there are also reports of their own crazy offers that got rejected as well, Jack Flaherty for a year of Josh Donaldson comes to mind, though in hindsight that one may not have been so bad. Regardless, trade deadlines can present situations that are difficult to read because there are teams with competing interests and motivations and sometimes those even defy common sense logic.

The Cardinals’ big-league club clearly has needs. The front office does appear interested in addressing some of those needs as the baseball operations department has met in Washington, D.C., this weekend as they work the trade lines. There are even reports that Bill DeWitt Jr is coming to DC, which has the link being made to a potential Juan Soto pursuit.

The Cardinals definitely have a full cupboard of prospects that they can use. They have graduated guys like Brendan Donovan, Juan Yepez, Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, and Andre Pallante to the majors this season. In addition to Liberatore, they have six other players on the midseason update to Baseball America’s Top-100 Prospects list. So, they have the prospect capital to make whatever moves they want.

The organization clearly seems to have an interest in Juan Soto, which would help the team both now and going forward at least the next two seasons. I wrote about my opinion of that pursuit earlier this week.

This team’s biggest need would seem to be a starting pitcher. And I don’t mean a pitcher who can start. I mean a starting pitcher. Someone you can hand the ball to every five days and trust that it’s not going to turn into a bullpen game more often than not.

There were reports during Spring Training that the Cardinals were interested in the A’s Frankie Montas, which may still be an option. The Marlins are listening on Pablo Lopez and same with the Guardians and Zach Plesac. The Reds’ may move Luis Castillo before the deadline, but trading inside the division seems unlikely, and that would apply to his rotation mate Tyler Mahle as well. But there are options for the Cardinals in this market.

There are a lot of people rolling their eyes at the talk about Soto instead of starting pitching. “Great, we can lose games 7-5 instead of 7-1,” is the basic complaint. But don’t discount the affect an addition of Soto can have on a pitching staff that would be energized at the prospect of having more offensive support in the lineup. It would also fit the Cardinals’ approach of piecing together a pitching staff with their young arms while spending on offense.

But I also think that there are benefits to the Cardinals being publicly involved in the Soto trade talks as they talk with other teams about other players. The reports that their baseball ops team and principal owner is heading to DC is great publicity to ratchet up the pressure on other teams. The Cardinals could leverage potential Soto negotiations to increase the pressure on a potential trade partner to pull the trigger or they may not be able to get the prospect they want if they wait, and a Soto trade goes through.

I just come back to what I’ve said several times over the last couple years. What’s the point in bringing Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols back, if not to make a push to go for it? What’s the point in bringing in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who are both on the wrong side of their decline curves now, if not to make a push to go for it?

The Cardinals have both prospects and money to spend this season, as their Opening Day payroll is the lowest it’s been since the 2017 season. They’ve cleansed their books of their bad contracts. With the right moves this weekend, the Cardinals could easily set themselves up as legitimate contenders for the next few years. The question is always whether ownership is willing to part with what it will take to make it happen.

ESPN reported on Saturday that star outfielder Juan Soto had turned a 15-year, $440 million contract extension offer from the Nationals, which would have been a Major League record both in length (surpassing Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-year extension signed in February 2021) and dollar amount (surpassing Mike Trout’s $426.5 million deal signed in March 2019). He had reportedly also turned down a 13-year, $325 million offer before the lockout last November. The word is on the street that the Nationals are looking to trade him.

Soto, 23, is hitting .250/.405/.497 with 20 home runs and 57 RBI. His 152 wRC+ ranks him 9th in Major League Baseball among qualified hitters and his 2.6 WAR ranks him 31st in Major League Baseball among position players.

Last season he was third in MLB in wRC+ and second in WAR.

Soto is in the middle of his third season of team control and will be eligible for free agency after the 2024 season.

There have been many in the national media that have reported that the Cardinals are a potential landing spot for Soto, and I think that makes sense in a “connect the dots” kind of way because the Cardinals could use a player like Soto, but it’s missing a key factor. It’s not the way the Cardinals operate or have operated.

Let’s hypothesize for a minute that the Cardinals were willing to spend the pieces required to acquire Soto. Where would that trade offer start?

If I were the Nationals, I’d start with Dylan Carlson. Carlson is generally viewed as a franchise cornerstone player by prospect evaluators and is still young, just two days older than Soto.

Next, I’d be asking for the Cardinals’ top prospect. That is Jordan Walker, who is 20 years old, a consensus top-30 prospect, and is hitting .304/.392/.486 at Springfield this season.

At that point, I’d be looking for three pitching prospects in the Cardinals’ system that I loved. I’d be willing to come off Matthew Liberatore, but it’s probably a group of guys headlined around right-hander Michael McGreevy, who was a first-round pick last season and has a 3.33 ERA in 18 starts between Peoria and Springfield this season.

That’s a big package, but that’s the kind of package it would take to secure a talent like Soto.

In addition, it doesn’t make sense to spend that kind of prospect spend if you’re not going to extend him. So, beyond that prospect package you’re also spending $500 million to secure him until the end of his career. And there is very little evidence to suggest that the Cardinals front office would ever consider spending that much money on a single player. In fact, I think it’s quite the opposite.

For years the Cardinals had said every winter that they were looking for a young, left-handed power bat on the free agent market. So, the 2018-19 offseason arrives, and 26-year-old left-handed power-hitting Bryce Harper is on the market and the Cardinals don’t even engage. Instead, they trade three prospects and a compensatory pick to the Diamondbacks for right-hand hitting Paul Goldschmidt and then sign him to an extension paying him more per year through his age 37 season than Harper got through his age 39 season.

I don’t believe the Cardinals have any interest in playing around in high dollar free agent pursuits. There was a time where they pursued David Price before the Red Sox went over the top, but in hindsight, that deal turned out poorly and Price’s contract was attached to Mookie Betts to get the Red Sox out from underneath it. I don’t think the Cardinals want to play around with that level of risk.

There is a reason why Goldschmidt’s 5-year, $130 million deal is the Cardinals’ largest deal and only five teams in baseball haven’t exceeded that. Even the Rays have given out a larger contract than $130 million.

Now you might try to tell me that the acquisition of Nolan Arenado is a significant departure and shows that they’re willing to spend on the right player because he makes over $30 million a year, and I would say that you’re wrong. So far, the Cardinals have only paid Arenado $26 million out of pocket for his first two seasons. And should he decline his opt out at the end of this season, the Cardinals will end up paying him just $163 million for 7 seasons. That’s a $23.3 million average annual value, which is less than Goldschmidt’s $26 million average annual value thanks to the Rockies sending a boat load of cash along with him. The Cardinals got Arenado for a song and the most amazing part of that deal is how 28 other General Managers in baseball still have jobs for not making that happen for their team.

Personally, I think the Cardinals should acquire Soto and then pay him whatever you need to. My opinion has been that for too long the Cardinals have wasted their money on mid-level free agents that are no better than the players they have in house. So, if you’re going to make trades and spend money, you should acquire and spend on the kinds of players you don’t have, the top-level players. And Soto is one of those players.

Regardless of what I think though, I don’t see any way that Soto is wearing the birds on the bat come August.

Edit: I was reminded in the comments that Arenado had a no-trade clause and was able to drive his destination in trade talks. So, I hereby apologize to the 28 other General Managers for questioning their competency.

Pujols’ pitching appearance wasn’t magic. He allowed four runs on three hits, a walk, and a pair of home runs. Luis Gonzalez and Joey Bart get to say that they homered off Albert Pujols.

My favorite thing about the appearance might have been the statistical notes.

Pujols was the oldest player to take the mound for the Cardinals since John Smoltz on September 30, 2009. Smoltz was older by 19 days.

Pujols has the second most career home runs for a player taking the mound at 681 home runs. Babe Ruth had 686 when he took the mound on October 1, 1933. That was Ruth’s only pitching appearance in 1933 and first since 1930. Ruth allowed 5 earned runs in a complete game 6-5 victory for the Yankees over the Red Sox.

Pujols may end up having the highest ERA of any Hall of Famer when he joins the club. His 36.00 career ERA currently tops Josh Gibson’s 21.60 career ERA.

But Pujols didn’t have the only statistically remarkable game. Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina scored their 203rd victory as a starting battery, surpassing Warren Spahn and Del Crandall as the winningest starting battery in MLB history. It is a record that will likely stand for a long time, given how free agency works in baseball these days.

One player spending 16 seasons playing for the same team is unlikely enough in the game today, two players doing it is a rarity. But I’m sure on September 17th, 1963, as Spahn and Crandall made their final start together, they figured it was going to be hard to be beat as well, even in a world without free agency. And it was for almost 60 years.

In some ways it was poetic that Pujols got to close out a game where Wainwright and Molina set that record. I can’t deny it wasn’t fun however I am disappointed that a night that should have been about those two doing something remarkable was overshadowed by Pujols taking the mound.

It does bring up an interesting point though. I wrote about some of my problems with unwritten rules earlier this season and this particular situation brings up some interesting hypocrisy.

The Cardinals had a 13 run lead and decided it was big enough that they could basically let anyone pitch and still win. Somehow this approach isn’t disrespectful, but bunting for a hit while up 13 runs because it might not be enough, is.

Makes no sense to me.

Anyway, I’m just hoping that for Wainwright’s final game in Busch, whenever that game may be, we get to hear, “Leading off and playing left field, #50 Adam Wainwright.”

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Who’s Hot, Hitter’s Edition
(minimum 15 plate appearances the last 10 days, out of 318 qualifying hitters)

1. Brendan Donovan, 302 wRC+ (4th in MLB)

2. Paul Goldschmidt, 254 wRC+ (T-11th in MLB)

3. Juan Yepez, 173 wRC+ (T-53rd in MLB)

4. Yadier Molina, 169 wRC+ (T-58th in MLB)

5. Dylan Carlson, 132 wRC+ (T-102nd in MLB)

Who’s Hot, Pitcher’s Edition
(minimum 15 batters faced the last 10 days, out of 305 qualifying pitchers)

1. Miles Mikolas, .186 wOBA (36th in MLB)

2. Jake Woodford, .203 wOBA (T-50th in MLB)

3. Adam Wainwright, .248 wOBA (T-86th in MLB)

4. Jordan Hicks, .266 wOBA (T-99th in MLB)

5. Genesis Cabrera, .336 wOBA (T-193rd in MLB)

In 2018, Yepez showed a flash in 25 games for Peoria, he hit .415/.462/.596 with 10 doubles, but just one home run. After a strong start to the 2019 season after returning to Peoria, he made his way to Springfield to finish the season before the 2020 season was cancelled.

When the minor leagues returned in 2021, Yepez had put it all together. After hitting .270/.387/.571 in 19 games for Springfield, Yepez was promoted to Memphis where he would hit .290/.382/.589 with 22 home runs the rest of the way, finishing with 27 home runs and 29 doubles on the season. Yepez then staked his claim in the Arizona Fall League where he hit .302/.388/.640 with 7 home runs in 23 games for Glendale.

Yepez would be sent down to Memphis to start the season, where he was hitting .279/.323/.651 with 9 home runs in 22 games to start the season when he got the call up to replace Edmundo Sosa on the roster due to a positive Covid test.

Appearing in five games so far, Yepez has gone 9-for-19 with three doubles and a home run. It looks like he might be giving the offense-starved Cardinals a reason to keep him around awhile.

Unfortunately for Yepez, his strongest defensive position is third base. His second strongest is probably first base. Two places the Cardinals are set. Though he does have time in the corner outfield and that is where he’s appeared twice in the field for the big-league Cardinals. But the outfield is where the Cardinals need the most help right now. Either way, I think Yepez is my favorite prospect story.

When teams trade a guy away for an anonymous prospect in the low minors that you have to dig to find any information on, the term I like to use is a lottery ticket, because that’s what you’re getting. John Mozeliak actually used that term to describe him too. Maybe you hit the jackpot, but you’re probably just hoping to recoup the cost of the ticket and most of the time you don’t even do that.

Back in March, I worried that the Yepez might be the next in the long line of Cardinals’ players who deserve a spot in the big leagues, but end up languishing in Memphis until they’re flipped for a couple of relievers at the deadline before becoming an All Star for another organization. He had a solid spring, but returned to Memphis. It was suggested in comments by Mozeliak that Yepez wasn’t happy about the team’s decision to send him to Memphis either. And it’s hard to blame a guy who has nothing left to prove in Triple-A being unhappy about being sent back to Triple-A.

But now five years later, Yepez is looking like he’s got all the tools to be a lineup regular in the big leagues and there’s a DH spot up for grabs that nobody on the roster has yet to stake their claim to on performance.

He’s certainly making the case that it should be him.

Who’s Hot, Hitter’s Edition
(minimum 15 plate appearances the last 10 days, out of 309 qualifying hitters)

1. Juan Yepez, 273 wRC+ (T-3rd in MLB)

2. Paul Goldschmidt, 180 wRC+ (T-44th in MLB)

3. Nolan Arenado, 126 wRC+ (108th in MLB)

4. Dylan Carlson, 121 wRC+ (114th in MLB)

5. Yadier Molina, 110 wRC+ (132nd in MLB)

Who’s Hot, Pitcher’s Edition
(minimum 15 batters faced the last 10 days, out of 287 qualifying pitchers)

1. Adam Wainwright, .193 wOBA (T-37th in MLB)

2. Nick Wittgren, .273 wOBA (114th in MLB)

3. Jake Woodford, .280 wOBA (T-123rd in MLB)

4. Miles Mikolas, .291 wOBA (132nd in MLB)

5. Andre Pallante, .332 wOBA (178th in MLB)

Gorman has hit .321/.372/.769 with 11 home runs in 20 games for the Memphis Redbirds this season, which works out for a 189 wRC+. The fourth highest wRC+ among Triple-A players this season. Trayce Thompson, who is third, was just called up by the Padres. All three are significantly older than Gorman is on a prospect development scale.

With the Cardinals’ offense struggling along in a very feast-or-famine way, there has been a lot of clamoring to get the team’s 21-year-old #2 prospect up and in the St. Louis lineup as quickly as possible. But if the Cardinals chose to call Gorman up today, the question they have to be ready to answer is where does he play? I just don’t think it’s an easy question to answer when you factor everything in.

The Cardinals are a team built around run prevention and defense, and this is how Busch Stadium plays. It’s not a stadium where you are just going to out slug the world, so 11 home runs looks nice on the stat sheet, but it doesn’t necessarily translate to offensive success in Busch Stadium. I think the Cardinals actually might have a reverse Coors Field thing going on with their offense, but that’s probably another topic for another day. So, for a player whose power is putting him on the prospect map, that’s not an automatic ticket.

Gorman, drafted as a third baseman, moved to second base last season after the acquisition of Nolan Arenado. He is still fairly new at the position with only about 90 games worth of innings at the position in the minors.

If you brought Gorman up to play second base, that would move Tommy Edman to shortstop, downgrading the defense at two positions.

That’s because there are some questions here about Edman’s ability to play shortstop given that a career minor league shortstop has started just 15 games there in the Majors and played even fewer than 15 games worth of innings. In the minors he was shifted away from shortstop for Edmundo Sosa on their way up. That tells you where he ranks defensively among the three possible shortstop options on the roster. The question, of course, is how much of a defensive gap there is there?

But, much like the addition of Gorman, moving Edman would be about getting his bat in the lineup over his glove. And I’d argue that Edman has not just overperformed offensively so far this season, but ridiculously so. Enough that I would not make any drastic moves expecting him to be a bat that you have to fit into the lineup.

The other option for the Cardinals would be to let him play DH against right-handed batters. But even this presents its own set of problems for Gorman’s development.

Like most young left-handed hitters, Gorman still needs work against left-handed pitching. However, I do always argue that a young left-handed hitter can’t adequately prepare for MLB level left-handed pitching in the minors because left-handed pitchers usually ascend to the major leagues much faster than any other type of player. So, he needs reps against them to continue to develop. In the minors, those reps are about developing the tools that you can then apply to learning in the majors. And I believe you need 300-400 at bats against left-handed pitching before we know what a left-handed hitter will bring to the plate in those situations. But then they also have Albert Pujols, and as I pointed out last week, he’s the guy I want taking every DH at bat against left-handed pitching this season. So, Gorman shouldn’t see many left-handed pitchers the rest of the season if he were called up.

So, if the Cardinals bring Gorman up, they’d be sacrificing defense on the field or his development as a player. And that’s in a best-case scenario where he shows up and hits. At some point the needs of the big league club will take over, but at this point there are too many downsides.

Personally, I’m a fan of letting a player get most of a second trip through Triple-A before getting him to the majors regularly. I just feel like that’s usually the difference between guys who quickly finds a slump and guys who have a little bit of staying power. Gorman made his Triple-A debut on June 29, 2021. So, he’s still short of a full season there and, ideally, in my opinion, he should be there until much later this year and mix him in to playing some other positions and then you bring him up and he becomes a DH who you can also play around the field to give guys days off.

Where does that leave the Cardinals for the rest of this season.

The Cardinals are a team that usually waits until the first couple weeks of June to make any moves that you’d describe as a big shakeup move. Doing something with DeJong would be that. And while DeJong’s bat has struggled, he’s not the reason this team isn’t productive on offense.

DeJong is not a central offensive figure for this lineup, and he has a better WAR than Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill, and Dylan Carlson. Those three guys were 1-2-3 in the lineup to start the season. Only Goldschmidt has a track record you can look at. O’Neill is coming off a career year, and Carlson wouldn’t be the first Cardinal prospect to experience a severe sophomore slump. This lineup depends on these guys producing. You hope a player like DeJong would help pick up some slack, but that’s not why his name is on the lineup card.

DeJong’s value is buoyed by his defense. Sure, defense doesn’t show up in the box score, but it does still bring value to the club. How much value is always the question, but I’m sure professional analytics departments have studied this in detail. Especially a club that has a pitching staff who puts the ball in play on a regular basis and has specific defensive needs as a result.

That’s part of the reason why the Cardinals are being patient with DeJong. Players who are great defensively will always get a longer runway to find themselves than those who don’t play great defense, and that’s the way it should be. But Mozeliak did essentially put DeJong on notice this weekend, saying that if things don’t change that they’ll start looking at other options and that Gorman will be one. That should enthuse Cardinals fans who want both DeJong out of the lineup and an opportunity for Gorman.

You can’t just take a couple hot weeks as gospel for what a player is going to be. Likewise, you can’t just take a couple cold weeks either. We’re not even a month into the season yet. Am I biased? Yes and yes. But front office decision maker don’t get the luxury of just throwing players away if they have a bad 3-4 weeks, especially when we’re talking about a player who still has about $13 million still owing to him. You need to figure out what they’re going to give you over the long term and that takes playing them on a regular basis. It’s what they’re going to need to do with Gorman when he does finally get the call, and it’s what they should give DeJong to confirm that he’s not up to the task.

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Who’s Hot, Hitter’s Edition
(minimum 15 plate appearances the last 10 days, out of 311 qualifying hitters)

• Paul Goldschmidt, 205 wRC+ (T-24th in MLB)

• Harrison Bader, 156 wRC+ (T-68th in MLB)

• Nolan Arenado, 152 wRC+ (74th in MLB)

• Tommy Edman, 129 wRC+ (T-104th in MLB)

• Andrew Knizner, 124 wRC+ (112th in MLB)

Who’s Hot, Pitcher’s Edition
(minimum 15 batters faced the last 10 days, out of 303 qualifying pitchers)

• Dakota Hudson, .193 wOBA (T-31st in MLB)

• Miles Mikolas, .218 wOBA (58th in MLB)

• Andre Pallante, .295 wOBA (T-149th in MLB)

• Nick Wittgren, .320 wOBA (173rd in MLB)

• Steven Matz, .364 wOBA (T-213th in MLB)

Cardinals’ 2022 WAR Leaders (of 1,557 MLB players)

1. 3B Nolan Arenado, 1.9 WAR (2nd in MLB)

2. 2B Tommy Edman, 1.4 WAR (T-7th in MLB)

3. CF Harrison Bader, 0.7 WAR (T-58th in MLB)

4. RHP Miles Mikolas, 0.6 WAR (T-78th in MLB)

5. LHP Steven Matz, 0.6 WAR (T-78th in MLB)

6. C Andrew Knizner, 0.4 WAR (T-152nd in MLB)

7. RHP Ryan Helsley, 0.4 WAR (T-152nd in MLB)

8. RHP Adam Wainwright, 0.3 WAR (T-200th in MLB)

9. Giovanny Gallegos, 0.2 WAR (T-283rd in MLB)

10. Paul DeJong, 0.1 WAR (T-388th in MLB)

Tuesday night the tensions reached another level when Kodi Whitley hit Mets designated hitter Pete Alonso in the helmet with an 84-mph changeup. It was a game that had already see five hit batters, three of them Mets. And it wasn’t the first time that Alonso has been hit in the helmet this year even. Visibly frustrated, Alonso took his base while the Mets’ dugout, led by Max Scherzer, began chirping across the field at the Cardinals’ dugout.

Wednesday afternoon, the Cardinals had a 10-5 lead in the bottom of the 8th when Nolan Arenado came to the plate to face Yoan Lopez. Arenado was 3-for-3 on the day and had been in the middle of pretty much all the Cardinals’ run scoring rallies. Lopez’s first pitch—a 94-mph fastball—came in high in front of Arenado’s eyes and Arenado started jawing at Lopez about the pitch. The result was something that more resembled the Mets charging the plate than Arenado charging the mound.

The benches are already cleared here and Arenado hasn’t taken more than a step or two onto the field. Mets players have gone much further from where they’re supposed to be than Arenado has.

The result was Arenado being ejected, Stubby Clapp gets ejected for aggressively pulling Alonso out of the scrum, and Lopez stayed in the game.

The Mets pleaded ignorance after the game about it’s intentionality, but they have to. If they were to admit that it was done intentionally, they’d be penalized. Certainly their reaction following Alonso’s hit on Tuesday suggested that they wanted retaliation.

There are a lot of people who seem to love wheen this happens and the benches clear. It does produce a lot of fun GIFs, like Giovanny Gallegos risking it all to jump out of the bullpen over the bullpen fence or the 5’8” Stubby Clapp taking down 6’3” Pete Alonso. But I hate it. It’s not good for baseball, and it’s really not good for any of the players who go out there.

For the most part, these become shoving matches. Everyone gets in a blob and just shoves and yells. But all it takes is one person to push a little too hard and it triggers reactions like dominos. Every time the benches clear my first memory is seeing Johnny Cueto getting pinned up against the netting behind home plate and kicking Jason LaRue and effectively ending LaRue’s career. Nothing about that is praiseworthy and neither is putting players in the position where that’s a possibility.

So how do we eliminate this from the game? We need the umpires or the league or someone to actually mete out a punishment, because right now they don’t. And it leaves one team feeling like they’ve been done wrong and their only recourse is to make it right themselves.

On Tuesday, Alonso gets hit in the head and the umpires warn both teams and the pitcher who threw the ball stays in the game.

On Wednesday, Arenado takes exception to a pitch around his head and he gets ejected while the pitcher who threw the ball stays in the game.

Things get left out of balance because there is no punishment for it. No risk. So players take it upon themselves to create a risk for the other team. You hit our guys, we hit you back. It’s like a cold war.

Both teams throwing at each other and the benches clearing are bad for baseball.

I’d put two rules in place, and I’ve supported these for years.

First, any player who is not in the game who sets foot on the field is automatically ejected. We don’t need bench players, support staff, and relievers running on the field to risk escalating the situation. The NBA uses a similar rule about players who leave the bench area in similar circumstances.

Second, any hit batter above the shoulder is an automatic ejection. If you cannot control your pitches, you do not need to be on the mound. I’d even mix in that your second hit batter in an appearance is an automatic ejection as well.

I’d even go as far as to suggest that any hit batter above the shoulder should also carry a minimum suspension as well. It’s not about intention. It’s about outcome. And hitting batters in the head is not an outcome we want, regardless of whether you meant to or not.

The only way to solve this is to create consequences for the pitcher based on the outcome and hopefully they’ll learn to control their stuff so that it doesn’t happen.

Because when the benches clear and the mob starts shoving, it doesn’t take too much for things to get out of hand real fast and something happen that causes an even bigger problem. Just ask Jason LaRue.

My wife suggested that that would mean that’d have to work Saturday the next weekend, which I was like, no, you have four days to “be convinced” of what the day actually is and then you take your weekend as normal. I’m not saying that’s why my Monday post is going up on a Tuesday night, but I’m not saying it’s not either. But moving on.

One of the things that I talked about when the Cardinals brought Albert Pujols back to the Cardinals, is that it could be a great deal for the Cardinals if they deployed him properly. As a 42-year-old, Pujols has a particular set of skills that can still provide value to a Major League ball club, and I indicated how Pujols could bring the organization value. But we’re three weeks into the season and they’re already not using him properly.

When you look at the numbers, Pujols is off to a great start. He’s slashing .269/.345/.539 with 2 home runs and a 162 wRC+ in the 8 games he’s played this season. But when you look at his platoon stats, he’s 6-for-12 with 2 home runs against left-handed pitchers and 1-for-14 against right-handed pitchers.

The Cardinals have played 15 games. Pujols has started seven of them and appeared as a pinch hitter in the other. So, it’s not directly a case of overuse so much as it’s a case of misuse. The problem for Pujols is that he’s not been an above average hitter against right-handed pitchers since 2016. Six whole seasons ago.

I get it, it’s going to be hard to tell the Cardinals’ legend Albert Pujols that he can’t play, and you’re also trying to balance giving fans an opportunity to see him play his final season. But he’s not the same Albert Pujols. I hate the idea that the 2022 Cardinals are a nostalgia ploy. Pujols, Wainwright, Molina, Goldschmidt, Mikolas, even Arenado are all on the wrong side of their decline curves at this point in their careers. Basically: All of these players are as good this year as you’re going to get the rest of their contracts.

Now they may perform better or worse in any given year because the decline curve is a trend and not set percentage decline each year, but their abilities are as good today as they’re going to be.

In addition to Pujols, the Cardinals signed Corey Dickerson based largely on his ability to hit right-handed pitchers at an above average level, which he has done in all nine of his seasons in the big leagues. He conversely struggles against left-handed pitchers, which is why I suggested that Dickerson and Pujols would make a great platoon set at DH for the Cardinals. And because he struggles against left-handed pitchers, he hasn’t faced one yet this season.

That should basically be the goal for Pujols.

Look, Dickerson at 4-for-27 hasn’t been that much better against right-handed pitchers than Pujols. And the team is 9-6 and technically in first place in the NL Central. So, I’m not going to complain too loudly about it, but so far, they’ve gotten away with it. I don’t think they’ll be able to all season long, and hopefully they’ll be able to tell Pujols it’s time to sit when that time comes.

Is it weird to say that I have more confidence that Oliver Marmol can pull that discussion off than any other Cardinals’ manager I’ve watched manage? After all, it seems like he’s gotten Molina to accept a smaller role.

Who’s Hot (Last 10 Days, minimum 15 PA)

Hitter’s Edition (minimum 15 plate appearances, out of 306 hitters):

1. Albert Pujols, 142 wRC+ (70th in MLB)
   Writer’s Note: Oh, the irony!

2. Nolan Arenado, 125 wRC+ (88th in MLB)

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 119 wRC+ (97th in MLB)

4. Tommy Edman, 106 wRC+ (115th in MLB)

5. Andrew Knizner, 103 wRC+ (124th in MLB)

Pitcher’s Edition (minimum 15 batters faced, out of 281 pitchers):

1. Miles Mikolas, .207 wOBA (61st in MLB)

2. Genesis Cabrera, .225 wOBA (75th in MLB)

3. Jordan Hicks, .239 wOBA (87th in MLB)

4. Steven Matz, .257 wOBA (108th in MLB)

5. Dakota Hudson, .287 wOBA (135th in MLB)

Cardinals 2022 WAR Leaders (of 1,477 MLB players)

1. 3B Nolan Arenado, 1.5 WAR (1st in MLB)

2. 2B Tommy Edman, 0.9 (T-16th in MLB)

3. RHP Miles Mikolas, 0.7 (T-39th in MLB)

4. CF Harrison Bader, 0.4 (T-99th in MLB)

5. LHP Steven Matz, 0.4 (T-99th in MLB)

6. C Andrew Knizner, 0.3 (T-149th in MLB)

7. RHP Adam Wainwright, 0.3 (T-149th in MLB)

8. RHP Ryan Helsley, 0.3 (T-149th in MLB)

9. SS Paul DeJong, 0.2 (T-216th in MLB)

10. RHP Giovanny Gallegos, 0.2 (T-216th in MLB)

Now why am I talking about single inning scoring records? Well, the unwritten rules of big leads in baseball have been the talk of the town lately after the San Francisco Giants stole a base in the second inning of a game with a nine-run lead and then bunted for a hit in the sixth inning of the same game with a ten-run lead. And the resulting reaction from the Giants and Padres managers and talking sports media heads brought it to the forefront.

On the side a team with a big lead continuing to play hard, it’s Giants’ manager Gabe Kapler who pointed out that continuing to play hard has ramifications beyond just the one game. “Our goal is not exclusively to win one game in a series. It’s to try to win the entire series,” he said post-game. “Sometimes that means trying to get a little deeper into the opposition’s bullpen. I understand that many teams don’t love that strategy. And I get why.”

He’d also add to reporters that it’s not about running up the score on anyone, but about “trying to see as many relievers as possible and make as few outs as possible.”

It’s hard to argue against this perspective. Everything gets measured in wins. And if you can give yourself a better chance to win this game and the next game at the same time, why wouldn’t you take it?

On the opposite side for teams with a big lead to stop playing hard, is Cardinals’ manager Oli Marmol who was asked about it and talked about the team’s internal policy that is used across the organization to stop certain actions when the lead gets to a certain point as he neatly sidestepped his own personal opinions on them. “We were always taught within this organization, as you come up through the system managing, there’s a certain point where you just stop,” he told Derrick Goold this week. Stop stealing bases, stop swinging 3-0, stop laying down bunts, etc.

It’s also hard to argue against this perspective. As a player who has been on both sides of blowouts, there does come a point where enough is enough.

The problem that I have with the idea that teams with a big lead should stop playing hard is that you’re teaching players to adjust the way that they play the game. I feel like it conditions them that their best efforts are not always required when they stop onto the field and that can create bad habits in those situations. As a manager, I would want the best effort from my players every time they play. There are still lessons that can be learned in at bats whether you’re up or down by ten runs and you should never waste an opportunity to get better.

Often times the argument for easing up on your opponents after getting a big lead is that it is disrespectful to your opponent to keep pushing and running up the score, intentionally or otherwise. But this isn’t college football where you have a Division I championship contender dropping 100 points on some Division II school you’ve never heard of. This is professional baseball.

I would argue that giving your opponent anything less than your best is far more disrespectful. Your actions would say, “You’re so bad, I don’t even have to try hard.”

For teams on the losing end of a big lead it sucks. The root of the argument is that at some point you just want to get the game over with and move onto the next one. But if that’s the point, why are you even swinging the bat? Just let the opposing pitcher strike you out on three 60 mph tosses down the middle. Why do you expect the other team to stop trying, but you get to keep trying?

That’s really the hypocritical notion with the “unwritten rules” in this situation. As long as you’re still trying to mount a comeback, the other team should still be trying to keep you from coming back. And if you’re the team on the losing end just going through the motions, why don’t we just put a rule in writing and get rid of the ambiguity? MLB already has the bones of a mercy rule on the books, so let’s just expand it and make it a thing.

Before the 2020 season—and ultimately only becoming effective in 2021 after the COVID shortened 2020 season—MLB put new rules in place on position players pitching. Under the new rules, position players can only pitch during extra innings or if their team is losing by six runs or more. The logic behind this is that allowing a position player to pitch is a mechanism used to protect the bullpen for the next day’s game.

So why not just take it a step further? Allow the manager to end a game at any point when their team is losing by six runs or more. Eliminate the gray area of how much effort players should be putting in and allow teams to save their bullpens to eliminate the strategic advantage the Giants attempt to use.

The question is always how the fans would respond to such a rule, and I imagine that most would act like they hate it because it’s less baseball and there’s something to be said about “fighting” until the very last out. And I’ll admit that that’s something I love about baseball. But we already have an inconsistency there as well. When the home team has a lead, we already let them skip out on playing the bottom of the 9th if they have the lead, and if they get the lead in the bottom of the 9th or later, we end the game too. If we’re all about playing to the advertised length of the game, shouldn’t they still have to play it?

I think that in practice, deep down in places you don’t talk about at parties, fans would like it. Think about the scenarios.

If you’re a fan of the winning team, you’re going to be happy that your team won the game, and you’ll leave the ballpark or turn off the TV with a smile on your face.

If you’re a fan of the losing team, if you’re still watching, you’re not going to happy losing in six innings or in nine innings either way. And it might be nicer to just put you out of your misery rather than forcing you to watch your team go through the motions for the final half of a game.

So, if the players don’t want to just suck it up and worry about how they’re playing, and not looking across the field at the other dugout and how the other team is playing, MLB should just go ahead and put a rule on the books and save us all from these discussions or the potential of guys getting thrown at in the future over something as stupid as this.

Who’s Hot, Hitter’s Edition (last 10 days, minimum 25 plate appearances)

1. Nolan Arenado, 311 wRC+ (3rd in MLB)

2. Tommy Edman, 209 wRC+ (13th in MLB)

3. Tyler O’Neill, 114 wRC+ (99th in MLB)

4. Harrison Bader, 94 wRC+ (123rd in MLB)

5. Paul DeJong, 93 wRC+ (124th in MLB)

Who’s Hot, Pitcher’s Edition (last 10 days, minimum 10 batters faced)

1. Giovanny Gallegos, .146 wOBA (27th in MLB)

2. Jordan Hicks, .164 wOBA (35th in MLB)

3. Aaron Brooks, .215 wOBA (104th in MLB)

4. Jake Woodford, .250 wOBA (141st in MLB)

5. Miles Mikolas, .256 wOBA (147th in MLB)

But enough about that, let’s go to my four questions that I have about the 2022 season that we’ll play 162 games to answer. Why four? Well, five sounded too standard. So, here they are:

Will we see a resurgent Paul DeJong? This might be tops of the spring training overreactions, but Paul DeJong looked good. And because of the abbreviated spring training, players are seeing higher quality opponents as well, which I think makes the numbers slightly less of a mirage than a normal spring training would be. In 9 games, he went 10-for-20, five of those for extra bases, with 2 home runs and 9 RBI.

Now, it is 9 games, and I’ve historically been really high on DeJong. Three years ago I made the case that if he took a little step forward he’d have an argument that he was the best shortstop in baseball. And then he took a step backwards. But if he can put up about a 110 wRC+ with the bat, he’s back in that argument because he’s a good enough defender. Even with a season he batted .197, DeJong was worth 2.4 WAR per 600 plate appearances. That was better than Tommy Edman’s 2.0 WAR/600.

DeJong was terrible, but he still managed to put up a good value carried by his defense. But that also means that he doesn’t have to do much with the bat to make himself one of the Cardinals’ most valuable players. If he could put up a .320 OBP with 20 home runs, that plays. And he has three seasons of being right around that or better.

Call me crazy, but yes, I think we see DeJong take a step forward this year from where he’s been the last couple seasons. Will he be an elite hitter? Probably not. But I think being at least an MLB average hitter is within reach.

Is this outfield for real? The Cardinals’ outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson showed up last season in a big way, all three among the Cardinals’ top-5 most valuable position players. But we’ve seen wild swings from these guys before.

O’Neill had a 71 wRC+ in 2020, but then broke out with a 145 wRC+ as the Cardinals’ MVP in 2021. I felt pretty bullish on O’Neill when the organization decided to hand him left field when they let Marcel Ozuna walk, but last season exceeded those expectations. Is he legitimately the caliber of player he showed last year?

Bader, ironically, is probably the most bankable outfielder to repeat. I say ironically because he’s also the one I never saw as a true starting caliber player. He had a 110 wRC+ after a 114 wRC+ in 2020. He did have an 82 wRC+ in 2019 that resulted in him making an excursion to Memphis. That likely won’t be a possibility for the newest member of the multi-year contract club. Bader players a premium defensive position, one where he is arguably the best defender in baseball.

Carlson, meanwhile, is young. A 66 wRC+ in 2020 to a 113 wRC+ in 2021. It’s hip to say that the 23-year-old prospect is on the upswing, but the list of Cardinals players to arrive with a solid full year and then struggle in their second full season is long. All five six (forgot Pujols, whose sophomore season was his worst with the Cardinals until his last one before leaving town) home-grown players that Carlson will share the Opening Day lineup with has.

For a team that struggled at times offensively last year and is banking on these three players playing an integral part of their offense this year, one of these guys disappearing could be a big problem.

I expect O’Neill to come back to earth a little bit (120-130 wRC+) and I think the odds are good that Carlson will at least duplicate his offensive performance from last season. He’ll have a bout of struggle, but he’ll counter that with a hot streak.

Will this rotation be enough? The Cardinals have two guys in their rotation who threw more than 70 innings last season in Adam Wainwright and Steven Matz. Wainwright is 40 and Matz has his fair share of injured list stints in his past. Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson are both returning from injuries and have both thrown less than 50 big league innings since 2019.

There is also not a set fifth starter. Aaron Brooks, Drew VerHagen, Jake Woodford and even Jordan Hicks are in the mix. The organization might go unconventional with the fifth spot. But still, someone will have to step up and put up quality innings in bulk. Are any of them capable of doing that? It’s a big question.

I think the Cardinals will need to find at least one starting pitcher this season beyond this group to make ends meet on the pitching staff. From outside the organization. Otherwise the team will be in trouble.

World Series or bust? Manager Oli Marmol said this spring that for this group of guys, anything less than a World Series would be a disappointment. Unfortunately, I don’t see this team as capable of winning its own division at this point, let alone making a deep postseason run. The best hope for this team is that they’re in the mix at the end of July.

One of my favorite analogies has been to describe the MLB season as game of poker. You have your cards and as the trade deadline approaches you have to decide whether this is a hand worth betting on.

You’ve seen it with other teams as the top teams have acquired reinforcements. That’s what the Cardinals have lacked the last few seasons as they haven’t made any big additions. They haven’t been worth betting on. So, for this Cardinals’ roster to win the World Series this year it will take being in the mix at the deadline and the front office acquiring to push this team into the conversation. And it’s going to be harder to push because there will be more teams in play for a playoff spot.

Otherwise it’ll just end up like the last few Octobers: With not enough wins for me to replace my faded, aging, and hole filled 2011 World Series Champions hoodie.

Three summers ago when Albert Pujols returned to St. Louis as a member of the Los Angeles Angels, I wrote that he was the most interesting thing in St. Louis baseball. The Cardinals were coming off a historically bad 9-18 May and were in the middle of a 13-13 June as they tumbled from the division lead to third place. His first return since leaving the organization was the most interesting thing going on in St. Louis baseball. And he is once again.

John Mozeliak and the Cardinals’ brass have gotten the band back together. As the 42-year-old Pujols was announced to the crowd, the 40-year-old Adam Wainwright was throwing warmup tosses to the 39-year-old Yadier Molina. Mozeliak said more than once today that all three are in their final season. Molina has said that, Pujols confirmed it today, which leaves Wainwright left to make an official announcement on his plans beyond the 2022 season. And he said that he’s not really considered that yet.

Party like it’s 2011.

The nostalgia is obvious. Fans who haven’t gotten a chance to see Pujols will want to get back into Busch Stadium to see the future Hall of Famer. But this is a team that is hoping to make a playoff run and that requires on the field production. What can Pujols bring to the table for the Cardinals other than ticket sales?

Last season Pujols declined a smaller role with the Angels and ended up getting released in his final season with the organization. At the time, there was talk of a potential Pujols/Cardinals reunion, but to be honest, they were not a good fit. With Paul Goldschmidt holding down first base, all they had to offer Pujols was spot starts and pinch hit opportunities. To be honest, that limited role had a lot to do about why I was onboard with a potential reunion last summer. Instead, Pujols ended up on the Dodgers where he would be able to get more playing time and they were able to better utilize him to let Pujols do what he still does well, and in 41 games with the Dodgers he hit 12 home runs and was just slightly above league average with a 101 wRC+ and a 0.3 WAR.

What Pujols could still do well last year was hit left-handed pitching. He would slash .294/.336/.603 against lefties with a 146 wRC+. That would have tied him for fourth on the 2021 Cardinals club with Nolan Arenado, behind Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill, and Dylan Carlson.

And he’s still an experienced power bat coming off the bench the rest of the time.

The Cardinals plans are likely going to be to have him split time at the DH spot with Corey Dickerson. Dickerson is a couple years removed from 2019, when he destroyed right-handed pitching, but he still hit .296/.333/.472 with a 113 wRC+ against them after being traded into a pennant race in Toronto. Did he struggle with a losing Miami team the last two seasons? Yes. But never underestimate the role motivation of being on a team with a winning culture can bring.

If both players show up like they’ve demonstrated they can in the past, the Cardinals will have one really good player combined for just $7.5 million. And if they flop, they still have Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez, and Nolan Gorman waiting in the wings.

This move brings the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster further into focus with a week and a half until opening day.

With Pujols and Dickerson added, the bench competition thins out significantly. I think we can expect Andrew Knizner on the roster as the backup catcher with Edmundo Sosa and Nootbaar with him.

The rotation will be Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and some combination Dakota Hudson, Aaron Brooks, and Drew VerHagen for the final two spots of the rotation with the other in the bullpen. In the bullpen, it’s still unclear exactly what assortment of team control pitchers the Cardinals will break camp with, but they do have two extra roster spots through May 1st. So that may not even be a decision they have to make right now.

The Cardinals’ Opening Day roster, minus those two extra spots, looks to stand between $158 million and $160 million depending on the results of arbitration cases for Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neill, which is still a few million less than last year’s Opening Day payroll. In view of all the talk about team spending in light of the collective bargaining agreement talks, it will be interesting to see where team payrolls—beyond just the Cardinals—end up when the season opens on April 7th.

As I saw it in October, the Cardinals entered this offseason with two goals: First, find a starting pitcher and second, find a solution at shortstop. The front office led off the winter by bringing in LHP Steven Matz before the lockout began, but there has been no action at shortstop. Instead, the Cardinals have made a series of small deals looking to assemble some pitching depth. The bottom line in the Cardinals’ strategy is clear: They need innings.

Last season was a disaster for the Cardinals pitching-wise, and their depth was tested in ways that I don’t think anyone saw coming. It led the team to hunting for pitching and the acquisitions of Luis Garcia, Wade LeBlanc, TJ McFarland, Jon Lester, JA Happ, and Justin Miller set a template for what the organization should look for: ground ball pitchers who don’t walk a lot of batters.

Why?

Last season the Cardinals pitching staff threw 1,417 innings. And 556 of those innings were thrown by pitchers who are no longer on the roster, including the pitchers who were second and third on the team in innings pitched. That presents a problem. Mix in Alex Reyes (72.1 innings) and Jack Flaherty (78.1 innings) missing Opening Day, and the Cardinals will be without six of their top-10 in innings pitched from 2021 on their 2022 Opening Day roster. Not to mention the pitchers who started 99 of 162 games last season.

It’s tremendous turnover for a pitching staff that 21st in Wins Above Replacement last season. But with young arms on the way, the organization is looking more for innings.

The Cardinals struck first out of the lockout by giving RHP Drew VerHagen a 2-year, $5.5 million deal. VerHagen, 31, has spent the last two seasons playing in Japan for the Nippon-Ham Fighters. He had a 3.49 ERA over 208.2 innings the last two seasons in Japan, establishing himself out of their rotation. He last pitched in the Majors for the Tigers in 2019. But in his MLB career, he had a ground ball rate of 53.9% and an 8.8% walk rate. He improved that with 7.2% walk rate in Japan.

The Cardinals have had success bringing pitchers over from Asia. Seung-hwan Oh, Miles Mikolas, and Kwang-hyun Kim most recently—who also just re-signed back in Korea for an KBO record guarantee of $12.3 million. They also signed another former MLB pitcher RHP Aaron Brooks, who sported a miniscule 4.4% walk rate the last two seasons in Korea, out of the KBO to a minor league deal back in January as well. Specifically, both Mikolas and Kim have similar profiles to VerHagen when it comes to being ground ball pitchers who don’t walk a lot of batters.

He’ll come to camp as a starter and flex back into the bullpen if he’s not needed there.

Then a couple days later, the Cardinals announced a 1 year, $1.2 million contract with RHP Nick Wittgren. Wittgren, 30, was effectively non-tendered by the Indians at the end of 2021 after being projected to make $2.8 million in his final season of arbitration. His 5.05 ERA in 2021 was a step back from his previous seasons, though much of that damage was done in just a couple of rough appearances. He sports a very similar profile to Matz but got eaten up by the long ball.

Last Tuesday, the Cardinals announced a minor league deal with RHP Zach McAllister. McAllister, 34, last pitched in the Major Leagues in 2018 with a 4.97 ERA over 41 appearances for the Indians before being released and having a struggle filled eight-day stint with the Rangers. He has scuffled around the minors since. But from 2015-2017, McAllister was a key piece in the Indians bullpen, posting a 2.99 ERA over 164 appearances. Again, while his numbers aren’t as great, when his ground ball rates were high, he was most effective in Cleveland, and he doesn’t walk a lot of batters (7.8% career).

There is a common thread among all those pitchers: they are ground ball throwers with generally low walk rates. The front office has had their eyes on pitchers who fit that profile for a key reason: this team’s position player group is built around run prevention. Learn those two words and learn to love them, because that has been this team’s hallmark the last few seasons and is possibly one of the best run prevention teams the league has ever seen, as it became the first to win five Gold Glove Awards in a single season.

But the front office is building this team’s pitching depth around guys who will depend on the defense that they’ve built. They will also need more arms than they have in the past because under the new collective bargaining agreement, players can only go be sent back to the minor leagues five times during the season. Previously a player could ride the Memphis shuttle back and forth as many times as the Cardinals wanted him to. In 2018, John Brebbia had been sent back to Memphis five times before the All Star Game, and was sent to Memphis twice more in the second half.

In my opinion, this also answers a question as to why the organization hasn’t moved aggressively on a shortstop. There just isn’t really a player that brings the defensive ability of a Paul DeJong and Edmundo Sosa pairing that is a clear upgrade offensively that the team is interested in paying. Paul DeJong, despite his offensive struggles, is still a top-5 defensive shortstop in baseball, and he and Sosa teamed up to lead the Cardinals to the best shortstop defense in the National League.

Carlos Correa, was the only option out there who would have represented a clear improvement for the Cardinals on both sides of the ball. And he happened to have been the primary shortstop for one of the two American League clubs who were better than the Cardinals defensively at shortstop last season.

It’s not pretty, but this is what we can expect from the Cardinals in 2022. With some veteran arms to add security out of camp, they’ll likely look to the young players like Jake Woodford and Johan Oviedo to fill roles and you’ve also got former first round prospects like Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore looking for opportunities to break in as well.

They still do have some money if they wanted to add an arm to the bullpen, but with Ryan Tepera and Kenley Jansen coming off the board this weekend, I don’t see anyone out there that feels like an obvious addition any longer. Which, depending on how long Reyes is missing for, may be a mistake that comes back to bite them.

The deal passing provided a little intrigue on Thursday afternoon as the players’ acceptance passed just 26-4 among the teams and 0-8 among the MLBPA’s Executive Subcommittee, and it was the Cardinals who were among the four teams who voted against the offer. The team owners would follow up on Thursday evening with a 30-0 acceptance to provide the agreement that will lift the lockout. At this point basically the league will operate under what is called a Memorandum of Understanding while the details are finalized for the final text of the new CBA and it gets officially ratified.

With an agreement in hand and free agency getting ready to rev up, what are some of the changes coming up in baseball this next year?

New Dates for Spring Training, Opening Day, and more. Players will be expected to report for spring training as early as this weekend, on Sunday, March 13th, with games starting next week. Opening Day will be on April 7th with the end of the season pushed back three days. The games from each team’s first four series’ will be rescheduled to be played as part of doubleheaders or added during off days. Each team will have between 11 and 14 games rescheduled; the Cardinals had 11. Which seems like a small advantage.

Universal DH. The biggest change that fans will see is going to be the designated hitter coming to the National League. No longer will it be an American League specific rule. I am firmly in the anti-DH camp and will forever be.

Competitive Balance Tax. One of the big sticking points was that the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) thresholds have been increased. It will start at $230 million, up $20 million from 2021’s value, and rise to $244 million in 2026, the final year of the new agreement. I feel like this is one of the biggest failures of the whole process. The CBT acts as a soft salary cap, but there is still no incentive or requirement for teams to spend any amount money on player payroll.

Pre-arbitration Bonus Pool. Another big sticking point was a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players. After initially asking for an amount over $100 million, the team owners and the players agreed on a pool of $50 million, which will be divided among players who are in their first three years of MLB service time and making the league minimum. Some of this money will be dedicated as bonuses for players winning awards, like Blake Snell did in 2018, with the remainder being divided up among the players by performance, though the exact formulas will be determined later.

Minimum Salary. Another sticking point for the players had been the minimum salary, which will see an increase from $570,500 to $700,000 this season and rise to $780,000 in 2026. The salaries for players who are on the 40 man roster, but in the minors have been raised as well.

Service Time Manipulation. The players were also working to find ways to reduce service time manipulation and under the new CBA it looks like rookies who are finalists for awards will be rewarded with a full season of service time, regardless of when they made their debut. Additionally, teams who open the season with rookies on their roster who are then finalists for awards will be rewarded with an additional draft pick. Though the exact details about how players qualify for this is still to be determined.

Draft Lottery. The players were also trying to find ways to reduce the effectiveness of tanking as a team building strategy. The first six picks of the MLB Draft in June will now be determined by lottery instead of purely the previous season’s win-loss reecords.

Expanded Playoffs. A big win for the team owners was permanent playoff expansion to twelve teams from the current ten team format. It adds an additional wild card team to each league.

International Draft. Introduced as a late addition to the negotiations by the team owners, the team owners and MLBPA agreed to discuss the terms of an international draft with a deadline of July 25th to reach an agreement. If they do reach an agreement, the qualifying offer system will go away. Otherwise, it will remain in place. No word on whether this is an actual deadline or a fake one like the owners’ February 28th deadline for agreement to play all 162 games.

Future Rule Changes. And the final big news we know today from the new CBA is that the notice period for MLB to give the MLBPA for rule changes has been changed from one year to just 45 days going forward. No specific rule changes have been announced yet, but under consideration will be pitch clocks, banning defensive shifts, and larger bases.

So Major League Baseball is back in business. It took 56 days from the team owners’ first offer of the offseason on January 13th to reach an agreement. If they had made that offer on December 2nd, the first day that they locked out players, we would still have about two and a half weeks until Pitchers & Catchers would be reporting for spring training. The owners ran the players’ backs against the wall of the season in the hopes of getting them to cave rather than attempt to negotiate through December.

I don’t get a vote on the deal, nor does it apply to me, but I don’t think the players accomplished what should have been their primary goal: creating a mechanism that requires team owners to spend a certain amount of money on player payroll. Nor is the CBT attached to any set revenue number, but rather negotiated. The CBT threshold will rise 16% from 2021’s $210 million to 2026’s $244 million, but league revenues will likely handily outpace that rise. Meaning that five years from now we’ll be having this exact same conversation about CBT thresholds.

* This post was not actually brought to you by Jeff Passan’s love of NFT’s, but rather in remembrance of ESPN’s MLB Insider being hacked and briefly losing control of his Twitter account on Thursday afternoon, which promoted NFTs instead of inside baseball information.

Since the league took the step of locking out the players upon the conclusion of the previous collective bargaining agreement (CBA) on December 2nd, a move Commissioner Rob Manfred said was key to saving the 2022 season, that started a 43 day stretch where the sides did not meet to make progress on a new agreement. Since resuming talks earlier this month, the players seem to have offered some concessions, but it is still not giving enough for the owners, who aren’t considering their changes. Calling many of the “non starters.”

The players have made some efforts to find give-and-take opportunities, but the team owners don’t seem very interested in budging from their positions and opportunities for true negotiation have been small. Meanwhile, the threats have been large.

Take the team owners’ reiteration this week of the threat that regular season games would be cancelled if a deal is not struck by February 28th and that they would not be rescheduling games, nor allow players to recoup their missed game checks. Which is premature to say, because that would be negotiated in the new deal. The team owners do not get to unilaterally impose that. But it does make their stance clear: “Take our deal or no games.”

This would be concerning even if it wasn’t just a simple continuation of Major League Baseball’s negotiating style over the last couple years.

In 2019 when they began negotiations on a new agreement with Minor League Baseball, MLB provided a list of reasons why they wanted to eliminate some minor league teams. The problem was that those list of reasons didn’t match up with the decisions MLB was making as far as what teams to keep and which ones to close. When pushed on this, their response was to refuse to negotiate and push through. In many ways, we never got to see a full conclusion to this because COVID and a season without Minor League Baseball pushed MiLB towards taking the deal.

And then we saw it again in the summer of 2020 while the team owners were attempting to get further concessions out of players on economic issues to return to play. When you look at the offers made from the different parties, all of Major League Baseball’s offers are effectively the same amount of money for differing numbers of games. Meanwhile the Players Associations offers dropped nearly in half between their first and last offers. They ended up forcing a shortened 60 game season for the same amount as the team owners’ previous offers. Leading one to wonder if they ever actually wanted a deal or just wanted an excuse to shorten the season without looking like they just wanted the shorten the season.

The primary conflict in this collective bargaining cycle appears to be the competitive balance tax (CBT) thresholds in the new deal. The players want it moved higher to encourage high revenue teams like the Yankees and Dodgers to spend more without penalty, asking for a move from $210 million in 2021 to $245 million in 2022 with reduced penalties for exceeding it. Meanwhile the team owners want it lower to protect low revenue teams, wanting to move it only to $214 million and double the penalty rates compared to what the players are proposing.

The team owners are arguing that the CBT is necessary for competitive balance, hence the name. However, it has not had it’s eponymous effect. Since 2011, every World Series winner has started the season in the top-12 in payroll and payroll has had no correlation to wins over that span either.

The problem is that the CBT acts as a de facto salary cap, but without the controls that salary caps have to force teams to spend. The players oppose a salary cap and there is reason to believe that the owners would be against one as well, because they get the best of both worlds right now with the CBT. Team owners can use the CBT as an excuse not to spend, but also have no real incentive to spend.

For example, the NFL model is that they have a collectively bargaining revenue split that is 48% to the players and 52% to the owners. That 48% is then split up into two pools, player salaries and player benefits. The benefits portion is what you’d expect it to be: healthcare, pensions, etc. That amounts to roughly 25%. So 75% of that 48% is the portion for player salaries and that’s the base salary cap. They also require that each team spend 89% of the salary cap over a four-year span. So you can’t just stop spending to tank and rebuild.

The only way out of this situation for the players might be a salary cap because it would come along with a salary floor. A harsh CBT acting as a soft cap without requiring teams at the bottom to spend money doesn’t do that. Last season the biggest payroll in baseball was six times higher than the smallest payroll.

The teams spending isn’t the problem we see. It’s the teams not spending.

If you use the NFL model, which effectively sets the cap at 36% of league revenues and using the calculation for CBT payroll with an estimated $12 billion for league revenue, that would place a $144 million salary cap. Given that the average CBT payroll last year was $147 million, that doesn’t look like it would change the system too much for the players. However, if you look at the last four seasons, you see that we had 7 teams spend a combined $542 million under the 89% salary floor while we had 21 teams outspend the cap by a combined $3.5 billion. That would not work for baseball.

But what would the right number be? Looking over the past four seasons, the players would need a salary cap at 44% of league revenues to reach the point where the teams overspent and underspent the cap and floor, respectively, by the same amount.

A side note about that 44% number? In 2018, the salary cap under this system would have been $152 million while the league average CBT payroll was also $152 million. However four years later in 2021, the 44% salary cap would have been $177 million while league average CBT payroll actually fell to $151 million. That illustrates perfectly how little player salaries have moved in comparison to league revenues and why the players are so insistent on creating opportunities for players to gain a larger share of those revenues.

Is a cap the best option? I don’t know. It would simplify a lot of offseason discussions about how much teams will or won’t spend, but the reason the owners may not want it though is that it will require opening the books to the players and determining exactly how much revenue they bring in so that they can set the number correctly. They don’t want to do that because it would no longer allow them to play poor. Because if the books supported their position, they’d have already opened them.

In my opinion, a better approach than trying to increase the CBT, is to introduce a mechanism to incentivize spending among the lower revenue teams. If the league has backed you into a de facto salary cap, push for a de facto salary floor.

The players want the CBT thresholds increased so that the Yankees and Dodgers and Red Sox and Cubs can each spend $30 million more without paying a penalty. But there’s more money if you can get the lower revenue teams like the Rays and the Marlins to spend more money. And you might accidentally make the league better by increasing parity and preventing obvious tanking (another thing the players are fighting against), and those are wins for everyone.

My proposed math for this concept would be simple. Tell the owners they get to keep the $214 million CBT threshold that they want, with their harsher penalties, but you want to see a floor at 70% of the CBT threshold, which would put a floor at $150 million. That’s roughly the halfway point between the highest and the lowest payrolls and a $64 million window seems fair enough. Maybe not even make it a floor. Maybe you make it a requirement to receive revenue sharing. Each team already receives over $100 million a year in revenue sharing.

Now, nobody likes it when owners play poor, but the revenue disparities in Major League Baseball are real and what I consider to be the biggest problem in baseball. But also not something the players should be worried about solving. If the Yankees bring in $683 million and the Marlins bring in $222 million, that’s a problem for team owners to figure out how to put all 30 teams on equal financial footing. The problem with the CBA is that there are too many rules to protect the Marlins from the Yankees at the players’ expense.

But that’s just how I see it.

As always, the deal is pending a physical, but they do expect to have it finalized before any potential lockout begins at midnight on December 2nd due to the collective bargaining agreement expiring.

When I first heard the news last week, my first reaction was that the Cardinals acquired a solid left-handed starting pitcher who won double digit games in 2021 with a solid ERA for just $11 million in average annual value. That seems like Matz is going to have to work hard to make that a bad deal for the Cardinals. Especially when you consider that they’ve been paying Andrew Miller $11.5 million out of the bullpen the last two seasons.

Is this an offer Cardinals fans shouldn’t refuse? Yes and no.

To the yes, the Cardinals definitely needed rotation help for 2022 and I would have had it at the top of the priority list this winter. Behind the 40-year-old Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals have no other starting pitchers who did not spend a significant amount of time on the injured list this year. Wainwright was also one of four pitchers who threw over 200 innings this year, but he’s still just one pitcher. The Cardinals need another guy they can hand the ball to every fifth day and expect to give them a chance to win. Is Matz that guy? He can be.

In 2018, 2019, and 2021, Matz made at least 29 starts and pitched between 150 and 160 innings in each of those years. In today’s bullpen heavy game, that’s probably good enough. After all, there were only four guys who topped 200 innings this year. That’s down from 15 guys five years ago and 31 guys ten years ago. Like it or not, this is the trend in today’s game.

To the no, Matz does also come with some red flags. He has spent some time on the injured list in four of his seven big league seasons, three of them related to issues in his throwing shoulder.

But if Matz can remain healthy, which I hate qualifying statements with because it’s true for everyone, this is a pairing that should produce good results. Maybe even better than 2021.

As a ground ball pitcher, Matz will go from a Blue Jays team that ranked 15th in defensive runs saved at +22 to a Cardinals team that came in second at +81 and will be the first team in MLB history to have a defense featuring five reigning Gold Glove Award winners.

Matz’s ground ball rate last season was 45.5% and it ranked 41st in Major League Baseball among 129 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last season. That notches in behind Wainwright (32nd at 47.5%) and Kwang-hyun Kim (33rd at 47.4%). Wainwright had a 3.05 ERA for the Cardinals while Kim had a 3.46 ERA. So the Cardinals infield knows how to capitalize on ground ball pitchers.

The only statistical red flag that really sticks out to me is the career best 12.3% HR/FB rate from last season, which also ranked 41st out of that same pool of pitchers. But Matz will be leaving a division that features the top-home run friendly ballpark (Baltimore) and played on home fields that ranked 2nd (Dunedin), 7th (Buffalo), and 12th (Toronto) in MLB. He’ll exchange that for a home field that ranked 31st (out of 34) and a division that also features the 34th (Milwaukee) and 29th (Pittsburgh) in home run friendliness.

To me that gives him a fighting shot at duplicating that mark. The odds are good that he’ll have an opportunity to improve on his 2021 season.

For me though, any problems I have with this deal are less about Matz and more about what it means about the Cardinals’ philosophy, a topic that has gotten a lot of coverage over the few weeks since they fired Mike Shildt. This is the same kind of mid-level free agency move that has gotten this team into trouble time after time. Instead of pursuing a pitcher who checks all the boxes and moves the needle like a Marcus Stroman and making sure you’re the best offer on the table, they play it safe with a player who purely checks the boxes and little more.

These are the kind of moves that raise a floor, but don’t lift the ceiling. These are the kind of moves that keep the Cardinals’ streak of consecutive seasons without a losing record alive, but don’t propel them into serious contender status. These are the kind of moves that I would have defended a few years ago, but don’t see as enough today.

But whether I like it or not, this is how John Mozeliak has chosen to operate his front office and will continue to operate it. They avoid the high profile free agents and focus on the mid-level ones, which I’ve always felt is a poor allocation of resources.

The Cardinals have proven very adept at drafting, developing, and producing solid MLB level players. They may perhaps be better at it than any other team. So, spending money on solid MLB level players becomes a problem for two reasons. First, it’s spending money on things you already have. And second, if those players struggle even a little bit, the pressure is on because there are a ton of similar caliber players behind them in the pipeline who can be just as good. So in my opinion, a team should be spending it’s money on things it doesn’t have. For the Cardinals, that’s top-level players.

The addition of Matz, along with a one-year deal to bring back RHP TJ McFarland, puts the Cardinals at an estimated $141.6 million payroll for their Opening Day 26 man roster. Based on an estimate of $165 million payroll budget, that leaves the Cardinals between $20-25 million to spend this winter, so it’s not like Matz prevents them from making other moves.

However, history has shown that these are likely to be the only major moves the organization will make this winter, though there is plenty of offseason remaining to prove me wrong. But I believe that Matz will end up being the biggest addition of the winter for the Cardinals.

The terms of the trade send Arozarena and 1B/OF Jose Martinez to the Rays in exchange for pitching prospect LHP Matthew Liberatore and minor league catcher Edgardo Rodriguez. The two teams also swapped competitive balance round draft picks.

My initial reaction to the trade was disappointment. Of all the Cardinals’ outfield prospects, he was the one that I liked the most and thought was most likely to turn into a quality MLB caliber player. Across the board, he seemed to have the fewest flaws. It didn’t hurt that I felt that the Cardinals had misused him in 2019, when he produced with every opportunity he was given and they declined to expand his playing time, saying that they didn’t know what they had in him. Which always felt like a cop out, because playing him is the only way you find that out.

And then Arozarena broke out in the 2020 playoffs for the Rays as he helped carry them to the World Series. Articles about Arozarena’s emergence began to be written and we learned that 2019 was not the only time the Rays tried to acquire him. They had tried to get him back at the 2017 Winter Meetings. At the time, I wrote about that and FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal talked on the broadcast about Arozarena and mentioned that the Cardinals had viewed him as similar in potential to Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader. With star outfield prospect Dylan Carlson in the mix, Arozarena was expendable.

So we got to watch Arozarena ball out on TV while those three guys were still struggling to find their way and Liberatore was nowhere to be seen, thanks to a cancelled minor league season in 2020.

But then came 2021.

Arozarena continued to produce, hitting .274/.356/.459 with 20 home runs and 128 wRC+ in 141 games for the Rays. In his first full season at he big league level, Arozarena turned in a 3.3 WAR, making him the 65th most valuable position player in baseball.

But there are two parts to analyzing every trade.

The first is the return.

Liberatore, 21, climbed prospect lists to become a consensus top-50 prospect and posted a 4.04 ERA in 21 starts for Memphis in his first season above A ball. Which I’ll admit doesn’t sound amazing, but he got better as the season went on, posting a 2.55 ERA over his final two months of the season and may be a candidate to debut for the Cardinals next season and perhaps even a dark horse candidate for a rotation spot.

But the second way to analyze a trade is the decisions made instead. The “opportunity cost,” if you will.

For the Cardinals, that is O’Neill, Bader, and Carlson.

O’Neill was the breakout candidate of this group by far in 2021. He would benefit from hitting in a lineup that featured Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, hitting .286/.352/.560 with 34 home runs and a 144 wRC+. His 5.4 WAR ranked him 12th in MLB among position players and led the Cardinals.

Bader built on some of the success he’d pieced together in 2020. He would hit .267/.324/.460 with 16 home runs and a 110 wRC+. He was the second best defensive player in baseball behind the Royals’ Michael A. Taylor according to Fangraphs’ Defense Runs Above Average metric. His 3.4 WAR ranked 59th in MLB among position players.

Meanwhile Carlson did not have a dominant year in Major League Baseball, but he did put together a solid year for the Cardinals in his first real season in the Majors. He hit .266/.343/.437 with 18 home runs and a 113 wRC+. His 2.8 WAR ranked 85th in MLB among position players.

So this season, both O’Neill and Bader were more valuable than Arozarena was while Carlson was within half a win and, while I may not completely agree, most smart prospect people seem to think he’ll be the best player of this bunch.

I’ve said for years that we see all these players the Cardinals have traded away go on and be productive with their new teams. And seeing that, if the Cardinals have faith in their player evaluation abilities, why aren’t they just letting the guys they kept play? We saw the benefits of doing that this year.

I think the Cardinals absolutely deserve credit now for not letting Arozarena languish in Memphis this year like they did with a player like Lane Thomas. Instead, they dealt him while he still had enough prospect value and acquired a top-60 prospect in return for a guy who had never been featured on any prospect lists and was undervalued by his own team.

And this is not the Cardinals’ first rodeo with a trade like this. As I was writing this, I recalled when the Cardinals traded Marco Gonzales to the Mariners in 2017. Gonzales was back from injury and proving to be an effective starter in Memphis, but there was no opportunity ahead of him in St. Louis. Rather than let him sit, they flipped him to Seattle for a top-100 prospect who had struggled upon his promotion to Triple-A. That player was Tyler O’Neill.

Gonzales has been a consistent and reliable starter for the Mariners over the last four seasons and I felt deserved some Cy Young votes for his stellar performance in 2020. O’Neill had failed to establish himself as a reliable MLB contributor until this year.

I had expected that it would take until Liberatore solidified himself in the Major Leagues in 2023 or even 2024 for the scales of this trade to start tipping in the Cardinals’ favor, but I think that even at this point, I don’t see how you can consider this a miss by the organization. If anything, this is already a win for the Cardinals. And once Liberatore debuts, it has the potential to tip the scales even further.

So instead of talking about this trade as a failure of the Cardinals’ player evaluation abilities, perhaps we should call it what it really is: A win.

And potentially a really big win at that.

It’s hard to say that there’s been any decision the Cardinals’ front office has made that shocked me more than this decision. The only challenger is when the Cardinals acquired Jason Heyward in November 2014.

After all, the Cardinals had won 90 games this season and made the postseason in each of Shildt’s three full seasons at the helm. He was a Cardinals’ lifer who had joined the organization as a scout—even being hired by Mozeliak—and worked his way up as a coach to minor league manager to major league coach before landing the top uniformed gig in the organization. So, there was little reason to suspect that he would not only continue to be the Cardinals’ manager in 2022, but also receive and extension this winter.

I’ve been quick to point out on Twitter how this team’s 90-72 record affects the final opinion of this team. The historic winning streak is great, but let’s not forget that without it, these same Cardinals were less than a month away from going 82-80 and missing the postseason.

Despite those struggles, I still felt that extending Shildt was going to be the right decision for the organization because the team was still showing up with fight every night as the injuries mounted. That showed leadership and kept them in position to be able to capitalize on that historic winning stream with a potseason berth.

But I’m also a strong supporter of the idea that once you’ve realized that someone is no longer the right fit for their job, it should be their last day. And after listening to the teleconference, the only thing I’m convinced of is that that’s how Mozeliak felt about this situation.

Maybe I just missed it because I didn’t pay as much attention to the Cardinals this season as I have in years past, but there was some friction between Shildt and hitting coach Jeff Albert. When asked about it during the teleconference, Mozeliak indicated that it was not the only reason behind the firing but left unsaid is that it was a contributing factor. Perhaps even driving many of the other reasons.

Since Albert returned to the Cardinals’ organization in 2019 as the team’s hitting coach, his employment has been a lightning rod for fans because it has not let to immediate offensive improvement for the big-league club. He inherited a club that had been 10th in runs scored in 2018 but fell to 19th in 2019 and hasn’t finished in the top half of the league in three seasons.

But whether fans think that it’s working is beside the point. The front office believes in him and the philosophies and approaches he’s bringing to the table. In the years since he arrived, the Cardinals have only expanded Albert’s influence as he now manages the curriculum for the hitting philosophy that’s taught throughout the organization, from top to bottom. The offensive explosion in the minors this season was attributed to Albert’s approach.

So, if there were disagreements between Shildt and Albert, issues that were perhaps hinted at by Tommy Edman earlier in the season on preparation and adjustments, this could be one of the key reasons behind it. Perhaps Shildt felt that he was on firmer ground that he actually was when he said something during the front office meetings last week?

One of Mozeliak’s themes during the news conference was talking about making sure everyone is on the same page. Most will suggest that that means that the front office is looking for a “Yes Man” and that Shildt no longer fit that definition, but that’s not the read I get on this situation. They do value people having differing opinions, but at the end of the day a decision is made, and everyone has to be pulling in the same direction and buy in.

There were definitely pre-existing disagreements on the coaching staff, but they either recently blew up or Mozeliak just realized that they were a lot bigger than he previously understood and felt a decision needed to be made. And the reason for the expediency is that you want to have a managerial opening before other teams start filling theirs. So after 18 years of working together, Mozeliak no longer sensed that Shildt would be able to overcome his own objections and buy into the direction he wanted to take the organization.

The vagueness of Mozeliak leads to a lot more questions than answers about what prompted this move by the Cardinals. Shildt is expected to make a statement on Monday about the decision, and while I don’t expect him to say much of anything, more information will eventually work its way out about what happened. But in the absence of that information, it leaves room for media and fans to inject that void with their own narratives and assumptions about what happened. After 18 years of loyal service, I feel like Mike Shildt deserves better than that.

If it was a baseball decision, let’s hear it. But it’s hard to call it a good move or a bad move.

Another thing worth considering is that when Shildt was promoted three and a half years ago, much was made about his connection to George Kissell and his carrying of “The Cardinal Way.” Kissel was the man at the center of the concept and after his death, Kissel’s son put together about a dozen books of Kissell’s notes about baseball and Shildt was a recipient of one. So, I think it’s fair to ask what those “philosophical differences” were and what Shildt’s departure represents for an organization when it comes to their core philosophies that Shildt was said to embody just three years ago.

But there is a managerial opening in St. Louis and the leaders in the clubhouse are—quite literally—first base coach Stubby Clapp and bench coach Oliver Marmol.

Clapp, 48, played 23 games for the Cardinals twenty years ago and after minor league coaching stints with Houston and Toronto, he returned to the Cardinals for the 2017 season to take over for Shildt as manager of the Memphis Redbirds. The Redbirds and Clapp would win back-to-back Pacific Coast League championships and he garnered some big league managerial interest from the Blue Jays, but ended up taking an opportunity to be the Cardinals’ first base coach.

Marmol, 35, was a 6th round pick by the Cardinals in the 2007 draft. After spending four seasons in the minors, Marmol transitioned to coaching. In 2021, he would replace Shildt as the manager of the Johnson City Cardinals and in 2015 he would move up to the Palm Beach Cardinals. In 2017, Marmol joined the big league coaching staff as first base coach before moving to bench coach for the 2019 season. The organization has talked highly of Marmol’s managerial prospects and may not have been ready three years ago, but may be a serious candidate this time. In fact, I’d probably put my money on him if they go for an internal option.

There are also some reports out of San Diego that Padres bench coach Skip Schumaker may interview for the job.

Regardless, I expect that the front office will take a few days to collect their thoughts, assess the potential outside candidates, and decide if there’s anyone they might want to interview. Having guys like Clapp and Marmol on the coaching, who they believe could make good managers, has to provide the front office with some level of comfort going forward.

My biggest question was whether this might reveal that Mozeliak is getting some pressure from his boss to produce a winning ballclub. After all, we hear every year that the goal is to win the division, but the Cardinals have just one division title over the last six years, the worst such stretch of DeWitt’s ownership. If it weren’t for expanded playoffs in the COVID shortened 2020 season, they would have missed the postseason. And they snuck in with the second wild card this year.

During the teleconference, Mozeliak did most of the talking while DeWitt seemed like he was there to just provide support. It felt atypical for DeWitt, who I compare to Jerry Jones as perhaps the most involved owner in the league. Three and a half years ago when the Cardinals fired Mike Matheny, DeWitt seemed to take the lead, but not here. Which may suggest the haste at which this situation came to light.

However, given that Mozeliak also termed the 2021 season “a real success” in front of said boss, I question whether he’s really under much pressure at all. DeWitt and Mozeliak see eye-to-eye and he is involved in every decision, but fundamentally this team is falling short. They are a good enough team to be there, but not good enough to beat the very best teams on a consistent basis. Some of that is resources, but some of that, especially in the NL Central, is decision-making. That’s something that I don’t feel this office deserves the benefit of the doubt on at this point. And that brings us back around.

I’ll leave you with this question though. How many front office executives in baseball survive the firing of two managers, let alone three?

As a result, I feel like this team needs to make big strides to address their needs this winter and they have the opportunity to do that.

The piece of information that should really frame any offseason spending discussions for Cardinals fans should be an understanding of what the team is paying out pocket for Nolan Arenado. When the Cardinals acquired Arenado in January, he was two years into an 8 year, $260 million deal that he signed before the 2019 season. At the time it was one of the highest average annual value deals in Major League Baseball and it got reworked with the trade. So let’s dig into what we know.

Arenado’s 2021 salary was $35 million. However the Cardinals ended up paying just $570,500 out of pocket for Arenado after he deferred $20 million of his 2021 salary and the Rockies chipped in $14,429,500. As part of that deferral deal, Arenado kept his opt out following the 2021 season and received a second following the 2022 season.

After the $14,429,500 from the Rockies in 2021, the Rockies will also send the Cardinals $16,000,000 in 2023. That $30.4 million is the only guaranteed money coming to St. Louis in the trade. The remaining money is conditional on Arenado not opting out. If he does not exercise his 2021 opt out, the Rockies will pay the Cardinals $5,570,500 in 2022. If he does not opt out after 2022, they will pay $5 million in each of 2024, 2025, and 2026.

How about that deferred money? That $20 million he deferred from his 2021 salary will be paid back in $2 million increments from 2022 to 2031 with interest. But he will also defer $6 million from each season from 2022 to 2026 to be paid back in $3 million increments from 2032 to 2041 without interest.

When you do the math for, that means that the Cardinals are paying $25,429,500 out of pocket for Arenado, which is roughly $25 million more than they spent on him last season. He’ll easily absorb the $18.5 million coming off the books from Matt Carpenter.

Here’s how the math works out for the rest of the contract, if he does not opt out after the 2022 season. He’ll be a free agent following the 2027 season.

• 2023: $15,000,000 + interest on $2M deferral

• 2024: $26,000,000 + interest on $2M deferral

• 2025: $23,000,000 + interest on $2M deferral

• 2026: $18,000,000 + interest on $2M deferral

• 2027: $17,000,000 + interest on $2M deferral

• 2028-31: $2,000,000 + interest

• 2032-41: $3,000,000

The next point is to look at what commitments the Cardinals will have.

The Cardinals have $100.4 million committed to six players in guaranteed contracts: Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Yadier Molina, and Paul DeJong.

They have eight arbitration eligible players under contract with a projected $22 million to be awarded: Jack Flaherty, Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, Alex Reyes, Giovanny Gallegos, Dakota Hudson, Jordan Hicks, and Jordan Miller.

That leaves them with 12 players left to round out the roster.

That gives them an expected 2022 Opening Day payroll of $129.6 million.

The Cardinals’ average payroll the last three seasons has been $165 million and I think that is a fair estimate for where the target will be. Doing the math, that means the Cardinals have about $35 million available to spend.

So what do the Cardinals need? When I consider this every winter, I look at the roster, but I also look at where the team ranked in comparison to the league on both sides of the ball and at each position and then factor in how easily a position could be upgraded.

Starting Pitching. The very top of my list is going to be that the Cardinals need to find some help. This season the Cardinals’ pitching staff ranked 21st in MLB, 11th in the NL, and even 3rd in their own division in total WAR. But beyond that the Cardinals don’t have a starting pitcher on their roster under the age of 40 who didn’t spend a significant amount of time on the injured list last season. That should be a big red flag. And while the organization has an abundance of young arms who should be capable of filling out relief roles, the number of young arms that appear ready to make an impact in the rotation is small.

For the Cardinals there are a number of interesting names on the free agent list. Tops would be Max Scherzer, the three-time Cy Young Award winner from Missouri. There are also guys like Marcus Stroman and Robbie Ray who the Cardinals have been connected to in the past, and I could also see a guy like Wade LeBlanc coming back as well in a potential flex role.

The potential starters under contract for next year are Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, and Dakota Hudson, and neither Mikolas nor Hudson pitched last season as they rehabbed injuries. Flaherty pitched half a season. Leaving a rotation that will likely be in need of added innings.

Shortstop. If you break the Cardinals down by position, shortstop isn’t actually even the biggest need, but it is the easiest to upgrade. Cardinals’ shortstops ranked 15th in the league in WAR. Right field (17th), second base (22nd), and catcher (25th) were bigger needs.

But in right field the Cardinals have Dylan Carlson who stepped up his performance in the second half of the season and the team ranked 6th in right field in the second half. At catcher, you’re not going to displace Yadier Molina until he hangs up the cleats. Then there is second base, where Tommy Edman proved to be a fine glove, left a lot to be desired at the plate, but top prospect Nolan Gorman, who may also plays second base.

Believe it or not, the Cardinals’ position players were actually the team’s strength last season. They ranked 7th in MLB in WAR and 3rd in the NL behind only the Giants and the Dodgers.

And when it comes to ease of upgrade, this is the offseason for the organization to look at it with a number of shortstops like Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, and Javier Baez in ESPN’s top-11 free agents.

Beyond those needs, the Cardinals are pretty well set. The Cardinals have some needs, but unlike the last few years, they also have the space in the budget to directly address those needs in a meaningful way if they wanted to. Upgrading shortstop is more of an option and I feel like Paul DeJong and Edmundo Sosa could provide solid work and if Gorman breaks out, Edman was a career shortstop through the minors and could slide over. If this team adds some quality pitching, they’re going to be in the mix again.

Same as always.

But will it be enough? Well, that’s what we play 162 to find out.