Four questions for the 2022 season
So we can look back and see how wrong I was
The MLB season kicks off this week with the Cardinals facing off against the Pittsburgh Pirates behind Adam Wainwright to open the season. It will be the first time since September 9, 2010, that Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Albert Pujols will share a starting lineup. The Cardinals won that game 11-4 over the Atlanta Braves.
But enough about that, let’s go to my four questions that I have about the 2022 season that we’ll play 162 games to answer. Why four? Well, five sounded too standard. So, here they are:
Will we see a resurgent Paul DeJong? This might be tops of the spring training overreactions, but Paul DeJong looked good. And because of the abbreviated spring training, players are seeing higher quality opponents as well, which I think makes the numbers slightly less of a mirage than a normal spring training would be. In 9 games, he went 10-for-20, five of those for extra bases, with 2 home runs and 9 RBI.
Now, it is 9 games, and I’ve historically been really high on DeJong. Three years ago I made the case that if he took a little step forward he’d have an argument that he was the best shortstop in baseball. And then he took a step backwards. But if he can put up about a 110 wRC+ with the bat, he’s back in that argument because he’s a good enough defender. Even with a season he batted .197, DeJong was worth 2.4 WAR per 600 plate appearances. That was better than Tommy Edman’s 2.0 WAR/600.
DeJong was terrible, but he still managed to put up a good value carried by his defense. But that also means that he doesn’t have to do much with the bat to make himself one of the Cardinals’ most valuable players. If he could put up a .320 OBP with 20 home runs, that plays. And he has three seasons of being right around that or better.
Call me crazy, but yes, I think we see DeJong take a step forward this year from where he’s been the last couple seasons. Will he be an elite hitter? Probably not. But I think being at least an MLB average hitter is within reach.
Is this outfield for real? The Cardinals’ outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson showed up last season in a big way, all three among the Cardinals’ top-5 most valuable position players. But we’ve seen wild swings from these guys before.
O’Neill had a 71 wRC+ in 2020, but then broke out with a 145 wRC+ as the Cardinals’ MVP in 2021. I felt pretty bullish on O’Neill when the organization decided to hand him left field when they let Marcel Ozuna walk, but last season exceeded those expectations. Is he legitimately the caliber of player he showed last year?
Bader, ironically, is probably the most bankable outfielder to repeat. I say ironically because he’s also the one I never saw as a true starting caliber player. He had a 110 wRC+ after a 114 wRC+ in 2020. He did have an 82 wRC+ in 2019 that resulted in him making an excursion to Memphis. That likely won’t be a possibility for the newest member of the multi-year contract club. Bader players a premium defensive position, one where he is arguably the best defender in baseball.
Carlson, meanwhile, is young. A 66 wRC+ in 2020 to a 113 wRC+ in 2021. It’s hip to say that the 23-year-old prospect is on the upswing, but the list of Cardinals players to arrive with a solid full year and then struggle in their second full season is long. All five six (forgot Pujols, whose sophomore season was his worst with the Cardinals until his last one before leaving town) home-grown players that Carlson will share the Opening Day lineup with has.
For a team that struggled at times offensively last year and is banking on these three players playing an integral part of their offense this year, one of these guys disappearing could be a big problem.
I expect O’Neill to come back to earth a little bit (120-130 wRC+) and I think the odds are good that Carlson will at least duplicate his offensive performance from last season. He’ll have a bout of struggle, but he’ll counter that with a hot streak.
Will this rotation be enough? The Cardinals have two guys in their rotation who threw more than 70 innings last season in Adam Wainwright and Steven Matz. Wainwright is 40 and Matz has his fair share of injured list stints in his past. Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson are both returning from injuries and have both thrown less than 50 big league innings since 2019.
There is also not a set fifth starter. Aaron Brooks, Drew VerHagen, Jake Woodford and even Jordan Hicks are in the mix. The organization might go unconventional with the fifth spot. But still, someone will have to step up and put up quality innings in bulk. Are any of them capable of doing that? It’s a big question.
I think the Cardinals will need to find at least one starting pitcher this season beyond this group to make ends meet on the pitching staff. From outside the organization. Otherwise the team will be in trouble.
World Series or bust? Manager Oli Marmol said this spring that for this group of guys, anything less than a World Series would be a disappointment. Unfortunately, I don’t see this team as capable of winning its own division at this point, let alone making a deep postseason run. The best hope for this team is that they’re in the mix at the end of July.
One of my favorite analogies has been to describe the MLB season as game of poker. You have your cards and as the trade deadline approaches you have to decide whether this is a hand worth betting on.
You’ve seen it with other teams as the top teams have acquired reinforcements. That’s what the Cardinals have lacked the last few seasons as they haven’t made any big additions. They haven’t been worth betting on. So, for this Cardinals’ roster to win the World Series this year it will take being in the mix at the deadline and the front office acquiring to push this team into the conversation. And it’s going to be harder to push because there will be more teams in play for a playoff spot.
Otherwise it’ll just end up like the last few Octobers: With not enough wins for me to replace my faded, aging, and hole filled 2011 World Series Champions hoodie.
