Is Paul DeJong the best shortstop in baseball?

Not yet, but I bet he's closer than you think

Earlier this year I was talking baseball with my Diamondbacks-fan brother when he mentioned that he saw a comment on an article calling the Dbacks’ Nick Ahmed “the best shortstop in baseball.” Even he thought it was a laughable concept, and it seems true on the surface because Ahmed’s name is not one that comes to my mind when you start talking about who the best shortstops in the game might be. I thought it was so far out of left field that I decided to do a deeper look to see if I was missing something beyond his pair of Gold Gloves.

Three years ago the mere suggestion that Paul DeJong may one day be the best shortstop in baseball seemed ridiculous. The Illinois State University product was the starting third baseman at Double-A Springfield. Conventional baseball wisdom would suggest that shortstops move to third base, rather than the other way around. Because if they could handle shortstop, they’d already be playing there, right? Well, here we are.

DeJong got his first taste at shortstop in pro ball in July 2016 with four starts for Springfield. In August, he’d get seven more games there. In the Arizona Fall League, he’d start another 16 games at short. Then he started 37 games there for Memphis in 2017 by the time he got his call up to St. Louis on June 6, 2017. After playing second base while Kolten Wong was on the injured list, DeJong moved to shortstop and would start 85 games there for St. Louis. More than double the number he’d played in the minors to that point.

During his rookie season, DeJong spent 747 innings at shortstop and graded out with 0 defensive runs saved (DRS) and a +2.1 ultimate zone rating (UZR). It was solid numbers for a player who had only been playing shortstop for a little over a year, and it was a big step up from Aledmys Diaz, who finished the year with -10 defensive runs aved and a -0.5 UZR in less than 600 innings of work. But for the steadying presence that DeJong brought to the defense, it was his bat that got the attention.

DeJong hit 13 home runs in Memphis to open the season and then another 25 in his time in the majors for a total of 38 home runs on the year. Those 25 home runs ranked second in Major League Baseball among shortstops behind just Francisco Lindor. His 123 wRC+ ranked fourth among shortstops with at least 400 plate appearances behind Carlos Correa, Zack Cozart, and Corey Seager. That was one of the reasons the Cardinals were amenable when he approached them about an extension and locked him in to a 6 year, $26 million deal.

But since that rookie season, the reasons DeJong has kept his job have switched. He’s slashed just .237/.316/.440 with a 101 wRC+ the past two seasons, but he’s been among the leaders at shortstop +30 defensive runs saved and +18.6 UZR.

Those defensive numbers rank him second in defensive runs saved behind the aforementioned Ahmed, and third in ultimate zone rating behind Andrelton Simmons and Lindor. In fact, DeJong and Simmons are the only two shortstops to appear in the top-5 of both defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating for the past two seasons. That’s impressive company because if you asked me off hand who the best shortstops in baseball are, my list would start with Simmons and Lindor.

For context, let’s establish what I believe you need to consider when appointing the “best” of something at baseball.

First, you need to consider the whole package in the context of their position. For a position like shortstop, a player’s defensive abilities are going to be more important than they would be in left field. So that’s why I’d discount a guy like Xander Bogaerts who, while having a 141 wRC+ last season, was also the worst defensive shortstop in the league according to his -17 defensive runs saved. He might be the best hitter who plays shortstop, but so would Mike Trout if the Angels penciled him in there.

Second, you need a track record. There is going to inevitably be some year-to-year variation, but over the course of time, someone who is consistently at the top of the board is better than someone who posts one strong season and then disappears. You need consistency.

So I think that the top-3 defensive shortstops in baseball are the group of Simmons, Lindor, and DeJong because of the consistency of those three when it comes to defensive metrics.

Simmons, 30, was fourth with +25 defensive runs saved and first with a +30.1 UZR over the past two seasons. During that time, he’s slashed .286/.326/.395 with a 97 wRC+.

Lindor, 26, was sixth with +15 defensive runs saved and second with a +20.5 UZR the past two seasons. During that time he has hit .280/.344/.519 with a 123 wRC+, but that includes a career offensive season in 2018 and has more consistently been a 110 to 120 wRC+ type of hitter.

And then we come to DeJong, also 26, who was second with +30 defensive runs saved and first with his +18.6 UZR the past two seasons. He has hit .237/.316/.440 the past two seasons with a 101 wRC+ and has been pretty even the last two seasons.

If you want to add Ahmed into consideration, he’s 29 years old and was first with +44 defensive runs saved and sixth with his +6.5 UZR. He has hit .244/.303/.424 the past two seasons with an 87 wRC+.

After looking at those numbers, DeJong is on par with the top defenders at his position and his bat is right there too, perhaps just a notch below Lindor’s.

The problem for DeJong is that he appears to be an average hitter whose value is carried by his power. But that tells only part of the story. When you break his seasons down, he becomes a fast starter who stalls out as the season goes on.

Back in 2018, DeJong posted a slash line of .260/.351/.473 with 8 home runs in the first 41 games of the season and looked to be making the extension look like a brilliant decision by the front office. But his season was derailed by a pitch that broke his hand. After he returned in July, DeJong hit just .231/.292/.314 with 11 home runs in the final 75 games of the season.

Unfortunately for DeJong, he repeated that performance in 2019. Using that same May 17th date, DeJong was hitting .318/.408/.541 with 7 home runs in 45 games. But from May 18th through the end of the season, DeJong hit just .199/.280/.404 with 23 home runs in 117 games. For comparison, Harrison Bader was hitting .195/.309/.339 when the team demoted him in July.

In each of the last two seasons, there has been an excuse for his struggles. In 2018, wrist injuries during the season can be difficult to come back from because they are such an important part of your swing. After the 2019 season, Mike Shildt explained his decline to overuse. Which does have some credit to it as he played 111 of 116 games he was available for in 2018 and started 159 of 162 last season while Edman, a career shortstop through the minors, didn’t play a single inning there for the Cardinals last season.

Only time will tell whether Shildt is right or whether DeJong will continue his streak of hot starts and cold summers.

Both could be true. So could neither.

Either way, the excuses are running out for him to put it all together.

But to answer the question I posed in the title: Is Paul DeJong the best shortstop in baseball? No, I don’t think so. But I don’t think he’s very far away from putting himself over the top. If he can put it together at the plate, he has the defensive credentials to win the argument.

Entering 2020, I feel like DeJong is in the same position Kolten Wong had been last winter. He’s flashed all his tools at the big league level and now just needs to put them all together on a consistency basis. He’s already proven he can be an elite shortstop. He’s even shown he can be a very good hitter. As long as he can maintain that defensive ability, he’s going to continue to get opportunities to put it together offensively. Because while he may not yet be the best shortstop in baseball, you don’t even need your whole hand to count those who are clearly better.

There was a Twitter poll last week going around about what you’d most like to see for the Cardinals next season:

• A healthy Carlos Martinez

• A Matt Carpenter bounceback season

• A healthy Alex Reyes

• or A consistent Harrison Bader

I chose Carpenter.

Fundamentally, because as I considered the question, the organization has pitching depth and they have outfield depth, but the number of players that have the potential to be 5+ WAR players—of which Carpenter is one—are small. Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt were both 5+ WAR players in 2018. Only 19 players in baseball did it in 2019. And the player that I think is most likely to have his first 5+ WAR season in 2020 is Paul DeJong. DeJong led the team with his 4.1 WAR last season.

Either way, DeJong is undoubtedly one of this team’s most valuable players.