Is Tommy Edman poised for a sophomore slump?
The real Cardinal Way
Same verse, new year for the Cardinals and Cardinals fans. A young prospect arrives in St. Louis, seemingly out of nowhere, and then goes on a tear that earns them consistent playing time the rest of the season. The fans then spend all winter clamoring for the player to get a larger role the next season, but when the time comes, the player fails to produce.
In 2015, it was Randal Grichuk who put together a strong year at the plate with an .877 OPS and 17 home runs in 103 games for the Cardinals. But in 2016, he struggled at the plate and had a season that included a brief demotion. He’d be traded to Toronto a year later.
In 2016, it was Aledmys Diaz who burst onto the scene after being designated for assignment the year before. He would become the team’s starting shortstop and eventually the #2 hitter after carrying a .400 batting average in May. But then came 2017, where he struggled offensively and defensively and would lose his job to Paul DeJong, got demoted, and was also traded to Toronto that next winter.
In 2017, it was DeJong’s turn. He took Diaz’s starting job and hit 38 home runs between St. Louis and Memphis with a 123 wRC+ in the big leagues. But in 2018, DeJong would be just an average offensive producer with a plus glove being the main factor he kept his job.
In 2018, here came Harrison Bader, who arrived mid-season and put up a .756 OPS while establishing himself as arguably the best defensive center fielder in baseball. But in 2019, Bader would end up demoted in late July while hitting .194 with a .648 OPS.
Then last season, Tommy Edman arrived on June 8th and would go on to hit .304 with an .850 OPS over 92 games for the Cardinals as one of the most versatile players on their roster. The question is whether Edman will establish himself as a legitimate starting player or whether he’ll be the next Cardinals player to succub to the sophomore slump upon increased expectations in year two.
I’ve said it before: There’s a real chance that Edman is purely the next Cinderella whose star will turn into a pumpkin when the clock strikes midnight. Part of it is to keep myself from becoming attached to a player that I enjoy watching play baseball, but another is the experience of having seen this exact scenario play out year after year.
Edman will take a step backwards. But how big?
Over his 349 plate appearances at the big-league level last season, he put up a 123 wRC+. That would be the most productive season he’s had in professional baseball since he tore up low A ball in 2016 with a 151 wRC+ after being drafted in the sixth round out of Stanford. Because of that arrival out of nowhere, projection systems aren’t too keen on him, with the five available at Fangraphs suggesting that he’s likely to be between a 91 and 97 wRC+ player this coming season. Just below the 100 wRC+ that would be league average. For reference, Matt Carpenter had a 95 wRC+ last season.
Another issue for Edman is his 4.6% walk rate, which ranked 253rd of 273 hitters that took at least 300 plate appearances last season. His walk rate in the minor leagues floated around 7%, so we may see some slight improvement here from Edman in year two as he adjusts to how MLB pitching is trying to attack him, but it still means that batting average is going to be the primary driver for his overall defensive value. I note that because it’s opposite of players like Carpenter and Dexter Fowler who have a higher performance floor than Edman because they walk two to three times more often. Even Bader walked 11.3% of the time last year.
The plus for Edman is that he makes good contact more often than most. Edman had a 24.7% line drive rate with the Cardinals last season and a 22.7% line drive rate if you include his time with Memphis. He’s posted a better than 22% line drive rate in three of his four seasons in professional baseball. All of MLB averaged a 21.4% line drive rate last season and Edman ranked 46th of those same 273 hitters with at least 300 plate appearances, right behind some guy named Mookie Betts.
But can he maintain that line drive rate? That’s the question and it will drive his value as a hitter.
Last summer when Mike Shildt was forcing Edman into the lineup by playing him in right field over other more experienced outfield options like Lane Thomas and Randy Arozarena, it was in large part because he was a line drive machine at the plate.
Edman hit .304 with a .500 slugging percentage last season. Looking at him through my “Luck Factor” model, it suggests that Edman’s batted ball results should yield a player who hit .285 with a .487 slugging percentage. So, on expected results alone, you can say that Edman outperformed.
Further, if you take that model and adjust Edman’s line drive rate from 24.7% to that 22% rate, he’s been around throughout his pro career and distribute the difference to the other two batted ball results—so still having given him the advantage of having put those balls into play somehow—Edman’s projections fall to a .276 batting average and a .478 slugging percentage.
At that point, with his walk rate, we’re not talking about a bat that is obviously starting caliber. Defensively he has a glove that is worth putting in the lineup if he can keep hitting line drives. But if that ability falls much below 22%, he goes from fringe starting player to average utility guy really fast.
There is optimism for him because he was hitting line drives at the end of the season about as well as he had all season long. In theory, that’s when the league should have been catching up to him and figuring out to exploit his weaknesses and he was able to not just maintain it as the season went on but improve.
It’s a lot of words and numbers to say that it will be pretty unlikely for Edman to replicate his 2019 season in 2020. So don’t expect it.
I do agree with many of the projection systems on Edman except for where it comes to slugging percentage. I believe that with his line drive abilities, he can flash more power than you expect. And in the end, it’s going to be that that determines what the future of his career holds.
