Rumor check: Francisco Lindor

Could the Indians' shortstop be headed for St. Louis?

Just over a week ago it began being reported that the Cleveland Indians have informed other clubs that they intended to trade Francisco Lindor this offseason. It’s not that surprising of a proposition considering that the organization has all but come out and said that they don’t intend to sign their star 27-year-old shortstop to an extension once his years of team control come to an end following the 2021 season. That means the time for them to trade Lindor is now.

There have also been a few reports that the Cardinals are among the top candidates to acquire Lindor in a trade, and it’s important to pay attention to the wording in articles. I’ve not seen any actual reports that the Cardinals are pursuing Lindor or intend to pursue him, just that people thing he’d fit with the Cardinals. It brings me back to Troy Tulowitzki who was consistently rumored to the Cardinals every winter for years. But there was never anything to those rumors except media playing connect the dots. So wording is always important to pay attention to during rumor season.

So let’s take a look at Lindor.

The numbers

The 27-year-old Lindor did not set the world on fire in 2020, hitting just .258/.335/.415 with a 100 wRC+ and a 3.8 WAR/600. It was easily the least productive season of his career, following the previous least productive season of his career.

But his offensive performance was a little inexplicable when I dug into his numbers. His strikeout rate was a career high, though only slightly higher than his career average. His walk rate was the second best of his career and his line drive rate was more than 3 percentage points better than his previous career high. Based on his batted ball rates, Lindor probably should have had a line closer to .289/.354/.494, which would have been quite the season.

Defensively, Lindor was just +2 defensive runs saved, the lowest of his career, even if you normalize it to 1,000 defensive innings. UZR liked him a little more, as it always has, with a +11.7 UZR/150, tops among MLB shortstops. His +8.4 Defensive Runs was also tops among MLB shortstops and second best in baseball among non-catchers behind Nolan Arenado, another long-rumored Cardinals’ target.

The former first round pick has one season of salary arbitration remaining. He made $17.5 million in 2020 before proration and MLBTradeRumors’ model for arbitration salaries for 2021 has him making somewhere between $17.5 million and $21.5 million. Personally, I think it’d be hard to offer him much less than $20 million if you wanted to sign him long-term.

The sniff test

Two years ago I’d have looked at the idea of trading Lindor and said no way to the idea without blinking. Last February I made the case that Paul DeJong was knocking on the door of being one of the best shortstops in baseball. I had tweeted in January that Lindor wasn’t that much of an improvement over DeJong. After all, Lindor had been worth 4.0 WAR/600 in 2019 while DeJong had been worth 3.7 WAR/600. All that expense for one-third of a win was hard to justify.

But now? I’m coming around on it.

DeJong, also 27, had a down year offensively and defensively. While still a quality defender with good power potential in his bat, it was a disappointing season for DeJong. He posted an 86 wRC+ which was 7th among regular players on the club. That was behind Tommy Edman, your probably starting second baseman at the moment, who was a career shortstop throughout the minors.

At this point I would not let DeJong being on the roster stop you from making a trade. But DeJong’s value is about to start plummeting as his salary increases if he can’t figure out how to consistently hit.

Should they do it?

That’s the obvious question that has no answer right now. The organization needs to figure out what they’re doing this winter. I read one article that suggested that the Cardinals needed to figure out whether they would be bringing back Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina before they looked at outside acquisitions. But what’s the point in bringing those two guys back if you’re not going to make additions to a team that finished third in the division?

You have their declining of a $12.5 million option on Kolten Wong, who had been the club’s most valuable player per plate appearance the past three seasons.

Then Bill DeWitt Jr. has said that the team’s budget is fluid and the team wants to have a contender for their fans. We’ve heard that story before. Talk is cheap, great players aren’t. It’s time to put to bed the talk of “being competitive” and talk about winning.

My last article wrote about the “Winter of Stanton” during the 2017-18 offseason and the moves that the Cardinals had on the table before they pulled back and made Marcell Ozuna their only acquisition.

Then two years ago the Cardinals acquired Paul Goldschmidt. He joined a team core of Matt Carpenter, Molina, and Wainwright as guys all on the wrong side of the decline curve. Arguably, these guys were as good right now as they were going to be over the remainder of their careers. Instead of going and getting a young, left-handed power bat named Bryce Harper—the epitome of the player they’d outlined wanting each of the previous few offseasons—they decided that staying competitive was enough.

Over the last several years the Cardinals have done nothing but maintain the status quo to remain competitive rather than do what they needed to do to put their team over the top. We’ve seen it in the standings as they’ve gone from fighting for division titles to needing to fall back on the wild card and even expanded playoffs. The Cardinals have won one division title in the last five years, something last done from 1995 to 1999, the first years of the DeWitt ownership group. It’s gotten that I feel like we’re watching the front office equivalent of the end of The Incredibles.

Then there’s the question of whether after all the talent they’ve traded away in recent years for Ozuna and Goldschmidt, whether they’re willing to take a another shot at acquiring a difference making player.

Maybe I’m being too harsh on the Cardinals, but it’s becoming harder and harder for me to see how everything folds together for this team to be a winner and I don’t see the team doing anything to change that. Last winter, I was optimistic that this team would be better than they were in 2019 because it was possible. And might it have worked better over 162 instead of 60? Maybe. But we didn’t play 162 games last season.

Regardless, there’s no doubt that the Cardinals need to add something to this club to make it better. I don’t think one piece does the trick and Lindor isn’t going to be the magic ingredient that makes the club a postseason favorite—there are very real holes, especially in the rotation—but he is clearly the kind of player the Cardinals should be looking to add this winter.

I will be banging the drum all winter long that the Cardinals should not be adding anyone over the age of 30 to this roster. Yes, that includes Wainwright and Molina. This team is too heavily invested in veteran players. Almost $50 million will come off the books next winter between Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, and Andrew Miller. It’s time to let those contracts run out and get younger. As I’ve been saying for a while, let the kids play themselves out of a job. And if they do, then you go and find someone to fill that need.

At 27-years-old, Lindor is the player teams want to add this winter. I’m willing to overlook 2020, especially with some of the statistical oddities that appear to have played out over a shortened season. There’s hope to suggest that his bat should have been much more productive than he was.

He’s young and he’s good enough that you’ll want to keep him around long-term. Maybe he plays third base. Maybe DeJong plays third base. Maybe DeJong goes to Cleveland. Either way, it’s a start. And if the Cardinals make this move, that’s exactly what it should be. A start.