Rumor check: Juan Soto

Do we really think there's a chance at this?

Nationals outfielder Juan Soto (Photo: All-Pro Reels / Wikimedia Commons)

ESPN reported on Saturday that star outfielder Juan Soto had turned a 15-year, $440 million contract extension offer from the Nationals, which would have been a Major League record both in length (surpassing Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-year extension signed in February 2021) and dollar amount (surpassing Mike Trout’s $426.5 million deal signed in March 2019). He had reportedly also turned down a 13-year, $325 million offer before the lockout last November. The word is on the street that the Nationals are looking to trade him.

Soto, 23, is hitting .250/.405/.497 with 20 home runs and 57 RBI. His 152 wRC+ ranks him 9th in Major League Baseball among qualified hitters and his 2.6 WAR ranks him 31st in Major League Baseball among position players.

Last season he was third in MLB in wRC+ and second in WAR.

Soto is in the middle of his third season of team control and will be eligible for free agency after the 2024 season.

There have been many in the national media that have reported that the Cardinals are a potential landing spot for Soto, and I think that makes sense in a “connect the dots” kind of way because the Cardinals could use a player like Soto, but it’s missing a key factor. It’s not the way the Cardinals operate or have operated.

Let’s hypothesize for a minute that the Cardinals were willing to spend the pieces required to acquire Soto. Where would that trade offer start?

If I were the Nationals, I’d start with Dylan Carlson. Carlson is generally viewed as a franchise cornerstone player by prospect evaluators and is still young, just two days older than Soto.

Next, I’d be asking for the Cardinals’ top prospect. That is Jordan Walker, who is 20 years old, a consensus top-30 prospect, and is hitting .304/.392/.486 at Springfield this season.

At that point, I’d be looking for three pitching prospects in the Cardinals’ system that I loved. I’d be willing to come off Matthew Liberatore, but it’s probably a group of guys headlined around right-hander Michael McGreevy, who was a first-round pick last season and has a 3.33 ERA in 18 starts between Peoria and Springfield this season.

That’s a big package, but that’s the kind of package it would take to secure a talent like Soto.

In addition, it doesn’t make sense to spend that kind of prospect spend if you’re not going to extend him. So, beyond that prospect package you’re also spending $500 million to secure him until the end of his career. And there is very little evidence to suggest that the Cardinals front office would ever consider spending that much money on a single player. In fact, I think it’s quite the opposite.

For years the Cardinals had said every winter that they were looking for a young, left-handed power bat on the free agent market. So, the 2018-19 offseason arrives, and 26-year-old left-handed power-hitting Bryce Harper is on the market and the Cardinals don’t even engage. Instead, they trade three prospects and a compensatory pick to the Diamondbacks for right-hand hitting Paul Goldschmidt and then sign him to an extension paying him more per year through his age 37 season than Harper got through his age 39 season.

I don’t believe the Cardinals have any interest in playing around in high dollar free agent pursuits. There was a time where they pursued David Price before the Red Sox went over the top, but in hindsight, that deal turned out poorly and Price’s contract was attached to Mookie Betts to get the Red Sox out from underneath it. I don’t think the Cardinals want to play around with that level of risk.

There is a reason why Goldschmidt’s 5-year, $130 million deal is the Cardinals’ largest deal and only five teams in baseball haven’t exceeded that. Even the Rays have given out a larger contract than $130 million.

Now you might try to tell me that the acquisition of Nolan Arenado is a significant departure and shows that they’re willing to spend on the right player because he makes over $30 million a year, and I would say that you’re wrong. So far, the Cardinals have only paid Arenado $26 million out of pocket for his first two seasons. And should he decline his opt out at the end of this season, the Cardinals will end up paying him just $163 million for 7 seasons. That’s a $23.3 million average annual value, which is less than Goldschmidt’s $26 million average annual value thanks to the Rockies sending a boat load of cash along with him. The Cardinals got Arenado for a song and the most amazing part of that deal is how 28 other General Managers in baseball still have jobs for not making that happen for their team.

Personally, I think the Cardinals should acquire Soto and then pay him whatever you need to. My opinion has been that for too long the Cardinals have wasted their money on mid-level free agents that are no better than the players they have in house. So, if you’re going to make trades and spend money, you should acquire and spend on the kinds of players you don’t have, the top-level players. And Soto is one of those players.

Regardless of what I think though, I don’t see any way that Soto is wearing the birds on the bat come August.

Edit: I was reminded in the comments that Arenado had a no-trade clause and was able to drive his destination in trade talks. So, I hereby apologize to the 28 other General Managers for questioning their competency.