Where do they go from here?
The Cardinals have some work to do
When you look at the final standings, the Cardinals went 90-72, winning 90 games for the second straight full season. That’s great, right? I say all the time that 90 wins should be the bar because it is almost guaranteed to get you to the playoffs. But was this team good enough to win 90 games? I know Lance Berkman once said you are what your record says you are, but this team relied on a historic 17-game winning streak turning their season around when they were looking more like an 82-80 team.
As a result, I feel like this team needs to make big strides to address their needs this winter and they have the opportunity to do that.
The piece of information that should really frame any offseason spending discussions for Cardinals fans should be an understanding of what the team is paying out pocket for Nolan Arenado. When the Cardinals acquired Arenado in January, he was two years into an 8 year, $260 million deal that he signed before the 2019 season. At the time it was one of the highest average annual value deals in Major League Baseball and it got reworked with the trade. So let’s dig into what we know.
Arenado’s 2021 salary was $35 million. However the Cardinals ended up paying just $570,500 out of pocket for Arenado after he deferred $20 million of his 2021 salary and the Rockies chipped in $14,429,500. As part of that deferral deal, Arenado kept his opt out following the 2021 season and received a second following the 2022 season.
After the $14,429,500 from the Rockies in 2021, the Rockies will also send the Cardinals $16,000,000 in 2023. That $30.4 million is the only guaranteed money coming to St. Louis in the trade. The remaining money is conditional on Arenado not opting out. If he does not exercise his 2021 opt out, the Rockies will pay the Cardinals $5,570,500 in 2022. If he does not opt out after 2022, they will pay $5 million in each of 2024, 2025, and 2026.
How about that deferred money? That $20 million he deferred from his 2021 salary will be paid back in $2 million increments from 2022 to 2031 with interest. But he will also defer $6 million from each season from 2022 to 2026 to be paid back in $3 million increments from 2032 to 2041 without interest.
When you do the math for, that means that the Cardinals are paying $25,429,500 out of pocket for Arenado, which is roughly $25 million more than they spent on him last season. He’ll easily absorb the $18.5 million coming off the books from Matt Carpenter.
Here’s how the math works out for the rest of the contract, if he does not opt out after the 2022 season. He’ll be a free agent following the 2027 season.
2023: $15,000,000 + interest on $2M deferral
2024: $26,000,000 + interest on $2M deferral
2025: $23,000,000 + interest on $2M deferral
2026: $18,000,000 + interest on $2M deferral
2027: $17,000,000 + interest on $2M deferral
2028-31: $2,000,000 + interest
2032-41: $3,000,000
The next point is to look at what commitments the Cardinals will have.
The Cardinals have $100.4 million committed to six players in guaranteed contracts: Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Yadier Molina, and Paul DeJong.
They have eight arbitration eligible players under contract with a projected $22 million to be awarded: Jack Flaherty, Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, Alex Reyes, Giovanny Gallegos, Dakota Hudson, Jordan Hicks, and Jordan Miller.
That leaves them with 12 players left to round out the roster.
That gives them an expected 2022 Opening Day payroll of $129.6 million.
The Cardinals’ average payroll the last three seasons has been $165 million and I think that is a fair estimate for where the target will be. Doing the math, that means the Cardinals have about $35 million available to spend.
So what do the Cardinals need? When I consider this every winter, I look at the roster, but I also look at where the team ranked in comparison to the league on both sides of the ball and at each position and then factor in how easily a position could be upgraded.
Starting Pitching. The very top of my list is going to be that the Cardinals need to find some help. This season the Cardinals’ pitching staff ranked 21st in MLB, 11th in the NL, and even 3rd in their own division in total WAR. But beyond that the Cardinals don’t have a starting pitcher on their roster under the age of 40 who didn’t spend a significant amount of time on the injured list last season. That should be a big red flag. And while the organization has an abundance of young arms who should be capable of filling out relief roles, the number of young arms that appear ready to make an impact in the rotation is small.
For the Cardinals there are a number of interesting names on the free agent list. Tops would be Max Scherzer, the three-time Cy Young Award winner from Missouri. There are also guys like Marcus Stroman and Robbie Ray who the Cardinals have been connected to in the past, and I could also see a guy like Wade LeBlanc coming back as well in a potential flex role.
The potential starters under contract for next year are Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, and Dakota Hudson, and neither Mikolas nor Hudson pitched last season as they rehabbed injuries. Flaherty pitched half a season. Leaving a rotation that will likely be in need of added innings.
Shortstop. If you break the Cardinals down by position, shortstop isn’t actually even the biggest need, but it is the easiest to upgrade. Cardinals’ shortstops ranked 15th in the league in WAR. Right field (17th), second base (22nd), and catcher (25th) were bigger needs.
But in right field the Cardinals have Dylan Carlson who stepped up his performance in the second half of the season and the team ranked 6th in right field in the second half. At catcher, you’re not going to displace Yadier Molina until he hangs up the cleats. Then there is second base, where Tommy Edman proved to be a fine glove, left a lot to be desired at the plate, but top prospect Nolan Gorman, who may also plays second base.
Believe it or not, the Cardinals’ position players were actually the team’s strength last season. They ranked 7th in MLB in WAR and 3rd in the NL behind only the Giants and the Dodgers.
And when it comes to ease of upgrade, this is the offseason for the organization to look at it with a number of shortstops like Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, and Javier Baez in ESPN’s top-11 free agents.
Beyond those needs, the Cardinals are pretty well set. The Cardinals have some needs, but unlike the last few years, they also have the space in the budget to directly address those needs in a meaningful way if they wanted to. Upgrading shortstop is more of an option and I feel like Paul DeJong and Edmundo Sosa could provide solid work and if Gorman breaks out, Edman was a career shortstop through the minors and could slide over. If this team adds some quality pitching, they’re going to be in the mix again.
Same as always.
But will it be enough? Well, that’s what we play 162 to find out.
